According to the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA), Ukraine’s wheat production for the 2025/26 marketing year could decline by 10–15% from its current forecast if dry weather conditions persist.

"In case dryness persists in Ukraine in the first half of May, we will need to cut our forecast of Ukrainian wheat crop 2025/26 by 10-15% from the current expectations at 22.5 MMT", said Mykola Gorbachev, a President at Ukrainian Grain Association. Last year's crop the UGA sees at 22.4 MMT.

The association noted that an increase in planted area is expected to offset a slight decline in yields.

However, worsening weather conditions could undermine this stable outlook. According to World AgWeather, Ukraine is expected to experience below-average rainfall over the next 14 days, potentially exacerbating crop stress and threatening yield potential.

Even if reduced by 15%, the UGA’s figure would still contrast sharply with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS USDA), which recently released its first projection for Ukraine’s 2025/26 wheat production, estimating it at 17.9 MMT — a 23% y/y and the lowest level since 2013. 

It is important to note that the FAS USDA forecast is based on the last available planted area figure published by the AgMin (4.38 MHA), rather than on the official final estimate, which has yet to be released by the Ukrainian Statistical Service. In contrast, market consensus points to a winter wheat planted area closer to 4.7 MHA, suggesting that the FAS USDA’s production forecast may be underestimated relative to prevailing market expectations.