Foreign exchange crises and geopolitical disruptions have reshaped Egypt’s grain imports in recent years. Russia has solidified its dominance in the wheat trade, while Ukraine has struggled to sustain its short-lived lead in Egypt’s corn imports. These and other market trends were discussed by Ahmed Amin, Owner of Egyptian-based company Sprint Trading, during the 26 February online  meeting of Trend&Hedge Club, where ASAP Agri serves as an information partner.

Wheat imports: russia dominates with higher quality, Ukraine struggles to compete

As the world’s largest wheat importer, Egypt has seen a major shift in its wheat procurement over the past two years. While Ukraine supplied nearly 4 MMT of wheat to Egypt in 2021, according to Amin, war-related disruptions and lower fertilizer use in 2022 significantly impacted Ukrainian wheat quality, leading to a sharp decline in imports — a trend that continues today.

Currently, russia supplies nearly 50% of Egypt’s wheat imports, while Ukrainian wheat, once a strong competitor, struggles to regain its market share.

“Egyptian millers prefer russian wheat for its milling consistency,” Amin explained. “Ukrainian wheat has faced challenges like bug damage and inconsistent quality in sub-lots, making it less attractive despite price discounts.”

With price spreads between russian and Ukrainian wheat often as narrow as 2–3 UD/MT, traders see little reason to take on the additional risks associated with Ukrainian grain, he added.

Corn imports: short-lived surge in Ukrainian shipments

Egypt’s corn import landscape has also shifted. Traditionally reliant on Argentina, Brazil, Romania, and Ukraine, Egypt saw a sharp drop in Brazilian corn imports between 2022 and 2023, which led to a surge in Ukrainian corn purchases.

“Two key factors drove this trend,” Amin explained. “First, Ukrainian exporters aggressively moved cargo out of Ukraine to mitigate war risks. Second, Egypt’s foreign exchange crisis created opportunities for speculative trade, making Ukrainian corn more attractive.”

Since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, Ukrainian grain exporters have sought alternative trade routes as infrastructure attacks and fluctuating export conditions made Black Sea shipping risky. As a result, many Ukrainian companies established storage and distribution networks in Egypt, rather than waiting for buyers elsewhere.

“Egypt has become a key logistical hub for Ukrainian grain,” said Amin. “The shift was natural, given Egypt’s proximity, storage capacity, and strong market demand.”

In addition, Egypt’s dual exchange rates — an official rate of 31 Egyptian pounds/USD and a black-market rate reaching 75 Egyptian pounds/USD — created arbitrage opportunities that fueled grain imports. But as Egypt’s economic conditions worsened, trade dynamics soured.

“Things were great — until they weren’t,” Amin noted. “Market greed led to disputes, and as grain prices fell, poultry producers were forced to cull chickens due to skyrocketing feed costs and FX [foreign exchange] shortages.”

Now, Brazil is regaining its market share in Egypt, while Ukrainian corn exports have dropped significantly this season.

Demand outlook: Egypt as important regional grain hub

Beyond its domestic challenges, Egypt’s geographic position amplifies its role in regional trade. Hosting an estimated 10–12 MLN refugees from Sudan, Libya, and Gaza, Egypt faces growing food security pressures.

“This is both a burden and an opportunity,” Amin said. “Egypt must secure food supplies for its expanding population, but at the same time, demand for flour and feed exports to neighboring countries is rising.”

Looking ahead, Ukraine’s export capacity could rebound if Black Sea tensions ease, according to Amin. “Egypt will remain a strategic market [for Ukraine], but pricing and quality competition with russian grain will be key.”