
The May USDA WASDE report delivered a
bearish tone for wheat markets, with global production for 2025/26 projected at
a new record high of 808.5 MMT— an 8.8 MMT increase y/y. The rise is driven by
sharp gains in the EU (136 MMT, +13.9 MMT), Argentina (20 MMT, +1.5), russia
(83 MMT, +1.4), and Canada (36 MMT, +1). These increases are expected to more
than offset declines in Kazakhstan (14.5 MMT, -4.1), Australia (31 MMT, -3.1),
and the U.S. (52.3 MMT, -1.4). While the U.S. crop is slightly lower
year-on-year, it exceeded market expectations.
Ukraine’s 2025/26 wheat crop is projected at
23 MMT, only slightly below last year and well above the FAS USDA estimate of
17.9 MMT, which did not yet reflect updated winter wheat planting data. For the
current 2024/25 season, the EU crop was revised upward by 1.1 MMT m/m, to 122.1
MMT.
Global wheat exports in 2025/26 are forecast
at 213 MMT, up 6.9 MMT from the previous season. The EU is expected to lead the
growth, with exports seen rising 7.5 MMT y/y to 34 MMT. Argentina (13 MMT, +2),
russia (45 MMT, +1.5), and Ukraine (16.5 MMT, +0.5) are also expected to expand
shipments. In contrast, exports are forecast to decline for Australia (23 MMT,
-2) and Kazakhstan (8 MMT, -2). U.S. exports are projected at 21.8 MMT, down
0.6 MMT, as global competition continues to weigh on demand for U.S. wheat.
For the current 2024/25 season, Canada’s
export estimate was raised by 0.5 MMT to 27 MMT, while Russia (43.5 MMT),
Australia (25 MMT), and Argentina (11 MMT) each saw a 0.5 MMT downgrade.
In terms of demand, China’s wheat imports in
2025/26 are projected to nearly double to 6 MMT, compared to 3.3 MMT in the
current season, which itself was revised down by 0.2 MMT m/m.
Global ending stocks for 2025/26 are seen at
265.7 MMT, slightly above last year (+0.5 MMT) and exceeding the average trade
estimate. In the U.S., ending stocks are projected to reach a six-year high of
25.1 MMT, up 10% y/y, adding to the overall bearish sentiment. For 2024/25,
global stocks were revised upward by 5.1 MMT to 265.2 MMT, also above
expectations.
In summary, the report was bearish for wheat
markets. A larger-than-expected U.S. crop and stocks, combined with record
global production, expanding exports, and higher ending stocks, all contributed
to downward pressure on CBOT futures. Unless significant weather disruptions
emerge, the global wheat supply looks more than sufficient heading into
2025/26.
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