Agricultural trade between the U.S. and China is once again under pressure — with escalating tariffs placing corn and, especially, soybeans in the direct line of fire. And if history is any guide, the outlook is troubling. During the first U.S.–China trade war in 2018/19, Chinese imports of U.S. soybeans fell by more than threefold, with the U.S. share of China’s soybean imports dropping sharply — from over 30% to less than 10% in just one season. This collapse followed China's imposition of a 25% retaliatory tariff on U.S. soybeans.

This time, however, the conflict appears much more intense and far-reaching.

Trade tensions between the U.S. and China have been escalating rapidly, leading to what is now widely viewed as a full-scale Trade War 2.0. 

The sharpest escalation came on 8 April, when the U.S. announced a further 50% tariff on Chinese imports, raising total duties to 104%. China retaliated with an 89% tariff, pushing effective tariffs on U.S. corn to 104% and soybeans to 99%. The U.S. struck back once more, lifting tariffs to a staggering 145% — marking the most aggressive exchange to date.

Where this cycle of retaliatory tariffs will end — no one knows.

While these developments will undoubtedly have a serious impact on overall trade between the two countries, our focus is on agriculture. China is no longer the same agricultural buyer it was in 2018. Over the past several years, it has diversified its supply chains, forged closer ties with Brazil, Argentina, and other producers, and invested heavily in domestic agricultural development.

As a result, Beijing may now be better positioned to withstand a prolonged standoff — or even pursue a strategy to eliminate its reliance on U.S. grains altogether.

So, the key question is: Can China truly walk away from U.S. corn and soybeans this time?

The answer could reshape global grain trade for years to come.

Corn

China’s corn import structure has undergone a dramatic transformation over the past five seasons — both in volume and in supplier geography. Once a top buyer of U.S. and Ukrainian corn, China has shifted its sourcing strategy, with Brazil now firmly established as its primary supplier.

China’s demand for imported corn has plummeted in the current 2024/25 MY. In October-February, the country imported just 1.1 MMT of corn — a staggering drop from 16.8 MMT over the same period a year earlier. This sharp reduction reflects not only lower demand but also changing market dynamics and sourcing priorities.

The shift in origins is particularly striking. Between 2020/21 and 2023/24, the U.S. steadily lost its position in China’s corn market. In 2024/25 so far, U.S. corn shipments to China have disappeared completely.

Ukraine, despite facing war-related challenges, managed to hold its presence in China’s market. However, it too has come under pressure from Brazilian competition. Brazil’s breakthrough came in the 2022/23 MY, following an agreement on phytosanitary protocols with China. Since then, Brazilian corn has taken the lead, becoming China’s top corn supplier in the 2023/24 MY — a position it continues to hold this season.

Life without U.S. corn: Can China pull it off?

Whether China can fully substitute U.S. corn depends largely on its total import needs. The USDA in March projected China’s corn imports at 8 MMT in the 2024/25 MY, while China’s Ministry of Agriculture forecasts a slightly higher figure of 9 MMT. However, many market analysts consider these estimates overly optimistic, with some suggesting imports could drop to as low as 2 MMT.

If China’s demand remains low, its needs can likely be met — primarily by Brazil, followed by Ukraine. But if import volumes rebound sharply — a scenario China has surprised the market with in the past — sourcing sufficient supply from just Brazil and Ukraine may prove challenging.

Other potential suppliers, like russia, have limited capacity. russia’s corn exports in the 2024/25 MY are projected at just 3.3 MMT — half of last year’s level. Moreover, russia has set its corn export quota at zero for the second half of 2024/25 MY, limiting its role even further.

Argentina, one of the world’s largest corn exporters, remains off the table for China due to phytosanitary restrictions. Unless these barriers are lifted, Argentina cannot fill the gap in China’s supply needs.

Strategic choices ahead

Replacing US corn is feasible as long as China’s import needs remain modest. In this scenario, Brazil will continue to be the dominant supplier. However, if demand rebounds to the levels seen in the 2023/24 MY (above 20 MMT), China may struggle to secure enough corn without opening up to new suppliers — Argentina being the most logical candidate.

Soybeans

Let’s begin with the broader picture of China’s soybean imports over the past four full marketing years, plus the current season. Between 2020/21 and 2023/24, China consistently imported between 91 MMT and 101 MMT of soybeans annually. Throughout this period, Brazil remained the dominant supplier, accounting for more than 60% of China’s imports each year. In 2023/24, Brazilian soybean exports to China surged to a record 75.8 MMT.

The U.S. holds its position as China’s second-largest supplier, though its volumes have decreased — from 38.1 MMT in 2020/21 down to 19.3 MMT in 2023/24. In the current 2024/25 marketing year, as of October–February, China’s total soybean imports reached 48.2 MMT, with U.S.-origin beans accounting for 18.4 MMT.

Argentina’s role remains modest, typically shipping 3 MMT annually, while other exporters (such as Uruguay, Canada, and others) contribute a minor share, usually around another 3 MMT combined.

Life without U.S. soybeans: Can China pull them off?

Let’s take the average of China’s annual soybean imports over the past four marketing years (2022/21 to 2022/23): approximately 100 MMT. If we consider the U.S. contribution — around 29 MMT on average — that’s the volume China would need to replace if it were to stop importing soybeans from the U.S.

Can Brazil fill the gap?

In recent seasons, Brazil has supplied between 60% and nearly 80% of China’s soybean imports. If the country continues harvesting crops above 150 MMT, its share could potentially rise to 85%. However, the prospect of further upside appears limited.

In theory, under ideal conditions — a bumper crop and all exportable volumes redirected to China — Brazil could meet China’s total soybean import needs on its own. But in reality, the likelihood of this scenario is very low, given Brazil’s global trade commitments.

A more realistic scenario suggests that Brazil could supply 80–85 MMT to China — a level that aligns with recent trade patterns and remains achievable, provided the country continues harvesting bumper crops.

That said, in the current season, Brazil alone may in fact be able to cover the remainder of China’s needs, given that China already imported 18.4 MMT of U.S. soybeans between September and February, before the new trade war escalated.

What about Argentina?

Argentina, by contrast, can offer only limited volumes. Over the past four seasons, the country supplied China with an average of 3 MMT of soybeans per year.

Altogether, Brazil and Argentina combined could supply up to 85–90 MMT, covering up to 90% of China’s projected soybean import demand. That would leave China needing to source an additional 10 MMT from alternative suppliers to fully meet its needs.

In the best-case scenario, China could source up to 5 MMT of soybeans from suppliers outside Brazil and Argentina. This would still leave a gap of at least 5 MMT that would either need to be filled by U.S. soybeans or require a reduction in China’s soybean consumption — and consequently, imports.

China’s strategy to reduce soybean import dependence

Since the first U.S.–China trade war in 2018/19, China has stepped up efforts to boost domestic soybean production and reduce reliance on imports. Output has risen from 16 MMT to a projected 20.7 MMT in 2024/25 — a 30% increase. However, consumption has grown even faster, climbing from 102.6 MMT to 128.9 MMT, keeping China heavily dependent on imports.

To narrow the gap, China is promoting GM and gene-edited soybeans, aiming to cut soymeal use in feed below 13%, and encouraging alternative proteins like microbial feed and food waste. These measures are backed by major policy shifts, including the 2024 Food Security Law and a 10-year agricultural transformation plan announced in 2025.

Despite meaningful steps toward greater self-reliance, China's path to soybean independence remains long — and costly.

Conclusion

As the trade war escalates, corn and soybean markets are being reshaped by more than just tariffs — they’re being redefined by long-term strategic decisions.

China is taking deliberate steps to insulate itself from future shocks, diversifying supply chains and investing in domestic output. Meanwhile, the U.S. is pivoting toward a broader, more diversified export base — and seeking new outlets in regions where Brazilian dominance could soften.

Whether this decoupling becomes permanent or proves temporary, one thing is clear: the global grain trade is entering a new era — one driven as much by politics and resilience as by price and productivity.

Detailed analysis of the U.S. tariffs' impact on global agricultural trade is available for subscribers of ASAP Agri https://asapagri.com/products