On 2 April 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump announced sweeping new tariffs aimed at reshaping the country’s trade policy. The package includes a 10% baseline tariff on all imports, effective 5 April, and retaliatory tariffs on goods from countries that impose taxes on U.S. exports, starting 9 April. A 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico took effect immediately, following a one-month delay.

As of 9 April, goods imported from China are subject to a cumulative 54% tariff — a combination of a newly introduced 34% tariff and a previously existing 20% rate. Moreover, the U.S. is considering an additional 25% tariff if China proceeds with oil purchases from Venezuela, which could raise the total tariff rate on Chinese imports to a staggering 79%.

Retaliation and real risks

In a bold and controversial move, the U.S. has imposed 10–34% tariffs on many of its most important agricultural partners—countries that also happen to be top buyers of U.S. corn, wheat, and soybeans. Among them: South Korea – 25% tariff, Japan– 24%, and the EU – 20%.

By penalizing its own top customers, the U.S. increases the risk of countermeasures, many of which are already underway. China has imposed a 15% tariff on U.S. corn and 10% on soybeans, effective 10 March. The European Union is considering a 25% tariff on U.S. corn and possibly soybeans, while also considering new rules that could restrict imports of agricultural goods treated with certain chemicals banned in Europe. 

Potential winners: Brazil, Ukraine, and Argentina

As U.S. trade tensions escalate, Brazil is emerging as the biggest winner. With strong ties to China, the EU, and Southeast Asia, plus competitive prices and a solid 2024/25 outlook, it's well-positioned to absorb diverted demand for corn and soybeans. Meanwhile, Argentina is regaining ground, thanks to a promising harvest, favorable currency, and proactive export push, especially toward Asia and the Middle East.

Ukraine’s corn sector also stands to benefit. "If key importers do end up imposing tariffs on U.S. corn, it will open a huge window of opportunity for alternative suppliers. And Ukrainian corn is in a strong position here: competitive pricing, stable logistics (if russia doesn’t interfere), and close ties with EU and Asian markets," says Victoria Blazhko, Head of Editorial, Content and Analytics at ASAP Agri. "Brazil is, of course, first in line, but it simply cannot cover all the demand. And that’s exactly where Ukraine can step in and claim its share. But that depends on whether importers actually follow through. So far, we see that the EU is in no rush to adopt the relevant measures."

Potential losers: U.S. farmers face fallout

Among all U.S. agricultural exports, soybeans and corn stand at the epicenter of escalating trade tensions. These two crops — cornerstones of American farm income — now face mounting risks, as buyers like Mexico, Japan, China, the EU, and South Korea, which together account for tens of millions of tons of U.S. exports, are now directly impacted by U.S. tariffs and are responding accordingly.

The American Farm Bureau Federation has warned of a “perfect storm”: higher input costs, collapsing market access, and falling prices. Smaller farms, already operating on razor-thin margins, are especially at risk. Without relief, many may be priced out of both global and domestic markets.

Detailed analysis of the U.S. tariffs' impact on global agricultural trade is available for subscribers of ASAP Agri https://asapagri.com/products