In 2024/25 MY, the global rapeseed market may show a "bullish" trend, thanks to the prospects of a reduction in harvests in the top producers – Ukraine, Canada and Australia, as Andrii Novosyolov, Barva Invest and Yurii Gavrilyuk, Tradomatic/Barva Invest Barva Invest said at Trend&Hedge Club on Wednesday, 03 Jul.

In particular, in the EU there were dry weather conditions during the planting season, which limited the number of planting areas. Then there was the non-ideal weather – frosts in Germany, Ukraine, and France, which caused damage to crops that began to bloom early. So, in general, the question has now arisen as to how much smaller the harvest in the EU can be, although it will definitely be lower than last year. "This is an interesting moment for Ukraine, because given the state of the rapeseed market in the EU, the total import demand of Europe may be higher." - noted A. Novoselov.

Canada could offer a good canola crop to the global market in the new season, while Australia and its crop prospects will have to be watched. Although Australia is currently expected to harvest a smaller canola crop.

So overall, the global supply of canola in 2024/25 MY will be lower, and the world will have a higher import requirement.

"In Ukraine, the production will also not be the best, compared to the previous season, and therefore it can potentially reduce its supply on the global market. However it is interesting to look at the volume of rapeseed processing in Ukraine. The USDA forecasts a reduction in processing from 1 MMT in 2023/24 MT to 0.4 MMT in 2024/25 MY, although it is difficult to determine the amount of processing so far. Here it is worth noting that the 2023/24 MY turned out to be unusual for the Ukrainian market because in the first 3 months of the season, 0.5 MMT of rapeseed were processed, although Ukraine usually exports 65% of its export potential in this period. This is primarily related to the work of Ukrainian ports. When it was not possible to ship rapeseed for export, processors began to actively process it," the expert noted.

This season, we can see a different picture, because the Ukrainian Corridor, secured by the Armed Forces, continues to work, and therefore Ukraine we can see high competition between processors and exporters, which is also supported by the prospects of maintaining fairly high rapeseed prices in the new season.

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