Aug WASDE raised global 2024/25 wheat production by 2.1 MMT to 798.3 MMT. Harvest in Ukraine was increased by 2.1 MMT to 21.6 MMT, as “State Statistical Service data indicating larger-than-expected harvested area”. Kazakhstan’s production was raised by 1.5 MMT to 16 MMT on higher yield forecast and despite some cut to area. Australian crop was upped by 1 MMT to 30 MMT. EU’s crop was cut by 2 MMT to 128 MMT, the lowest since 2020/21 MY, as prolonged rains in France deteriorated production prospects. US harvest was reduced by 0.7 MMT to 53.9 MMT, “as reduced harvested area was only partly offset by a higher average yield”, while the market was expecting some increase of the forecast. russian crop was left steady at 83 MMT.

World 2024/25 wheat export was raised by 2 MMT to 214.9 MMT. Prospects for Ukraine and Australia were upped by 1 MMT each to 14 MMT and 23 MMT correspondingly on better production prospects in these countries. In turn, the EU export was cut by 0.5 MMT to 34 MMT.

World 2024/25 consumption was increased by 4.1 MMT to 804 MMT mainly on higher feed and residual use for the EU, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine.”

World 2024/25 ending stocks were cut by 0.6 MMT to 256.6 MMT, the lowest since 2015/16 MY, and slightly lower than 256.9 MMT expected by the market. Particularly, US stocks were lowered by 0.8 MMT to 22.5 MMT on smaller crop, while the trade guess was for bigger figure m/m.