Aug WASDE raised global 2024/25 soybean crop substantially by 6.9 MMT to 428.7 MMT. US crop was increased by 4.2 MMT to 124.9 MMT on higher area and yield, exceeding market expectations. Ukraine’s crop was upped by 1.3 MMT to a record 6.8 MMT, as the harvested area is seen at an all-time high of 2.9 MLN HA, up 0.7 MLN HA m/m, and vs. 2.6 MLN HA in official UkrStat's estimated. As well, WASDE applied quite optimistic soybean yield for Ukraine at 2.35 MT/HA, in spite of hot summer. russian harvest was raised by 0.7 MMT to 7.3 MMT. India’s crop was increased by 0.6 MMT to 12.8 MMT.

Global 2024/25 export was upped by 1 MMT to 181.2 MMT. Forecast for the USA was increased by 0.7 MMT to 50.4 MMT “on higher supplies and crush unchanged.” For Ukraine, export was raised by 0.8 MMT to 4.3 MMT on higher corp. russian export was upped by 0.4 MMT to 1.3 MMT. In turn, Argentina’s export for the next season was reduced by 1 MMT to 4.5 MMT.

Global soybean consumption was increased by 1.3 MMT to 402.8 MMT.

World ending stocks for 2024/25 MY raised sizable by 6.5 MMT to 134.3 MMT “mainly on higher stocks for China, the US, and Argentina partly offset by lower stocks for Brazil”. It is sizably higher than 128 MMT expected. The US stocks were revised up by 3.4 MMT to 15.3 MMT, much higher than expected.

For 2023/24 MY harvest, Argentina’s crop was cut by 0.5 MMT to 49 MMT.

2023/24 export from Brazil was upped by 2 MMT to 105 MMT “on the strong shipment pace through Jul.” China’s import increased by 3.5 MMT to 11.5 MMT “on higher shipments by exporters.”

For rapeseed, global 2024/25 production was raised by 0.9 MMT to 88.8 MMT “mainly on higher area for Russia”, that pushed russian harvest up by 0.8 MMT m/m to 5.1 MMT.

Global 2024/25 rapeseed export was raised by 0.2 MMT to 17.5 MMT, with only slight upward revision made for russia – up by 175 KMT to 925 KMT. Ukrainian export forecast was lest steady at 3.3 MMT, and crush is seen at 400 KMT.

Among importers, the only change was made for China – up by 200 KMT to 3.9 MMT.