Jul WASDE raised global 2024/25 wheat production by 5.4 MMT to 796.2 MMT. The US harvest was upped 3.6 MMT to 54.7 MMT, above expectations, “on an increase in harvested area and higher yields.” Canada’s crop was raised by 1 MMT to 35 MMT on “improved moisture conditions in the Prairie Provinces.” Argentina’s production was increased by 0.5 MMT to 18 MMT. It is still lower than 20.5 MMT seen in the yesterday’s RGE forecast. “Pakistan’s production forecast is raised 1.4 MMT to a record 31.4 MMT, based on government estimates indicating a large yield.” In turn, the EU crop was cut by 0.5 MMT to 130 MMT. russian crop left at 83 MMT, despite the recent upward revision by local analysts.

World 2024/25 wheat export was left virtually unchanged at 212.9 MMT. The US export upped by 0.7 MMT to 22.5 MMT, Canada’s trade prospects raised by 0.5 MMT to 25 MMT. The EU export down 0.5 MMT to 34.5 MMT. China’s import increased by 1 MMT to 12 MMT.

World 2024/25 consumption was increased by 1.9 MMT to 799.9 MMT “on higher food, seed, and industrial use and feed and residual use for several countries.”

World 2024/25 ending stocks were upped sizably by almost 5 MMT to 257.2 MMT, “mostly on increases for the US, China, Argentina, Pakistan, and Canada more than offsetting reductions for russia, the EU, and Iran”. The market expected the figure to be cut slightly to 252.2 MMT. For the USA, stocks were increased by 98 mbu to the highest in five years 856 mbu, up 22% y/y. The operators expected the stocks to be raised less sizably – to 788 mbu.