On Monday, 6 October 2025, ASAP Agri alerted its Premium subscribers to another downgrade in its forecast for Ukraine’s 2025/26 sunflower harvest — now projected at 11.4 MMT, down from 12 MMT previously. The revision reflects weaker yields across major producing regions and weather-related harvesting delays, suggesting Ukraine may record its smallest sunflower output in a decade, based on USDA comparisons.

According to the latest official data (as of 2 October 2025), farmers have harvested 59% of the area — around 3.02 M ha, collecting 5.54 MMT of sunflower seed so far. The average yield stands at 1.83 MT/ha, notably below potential.

“The key producing regions — Dnipro, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Odesa, and Kharkiv — were hit hard by prolonged summer drought, with yields ranging between 0.5–1.6 MT/ha,” commented Christina Serebriakova, CEO at ASAP Agri. “In the central and northern oblasts — Vinnytsia, Poltava, Cherkasy, and Chernihiv — yields are higher, yet late-September and October rains could cause further harvest delays and partial losses.”

ASAP Agri also revised its 2024 sunflower crop down to 12.4 MMT from 12.9 MMT, mainly due to acreage correction. For comparison, USDA figures stand at 13 MMT for 2024/25 and 12.7 MMT for 2025/26, implying that further downward revisions could appear in upcoming WASDE reports.