On 29 May, 2024, Rodion Rybchynskyi, director of the public union "Millers of Ukraine" noted, that Ukrainian business associations are appealing to get back to the practice of signing the Memorandum on grain export. Some of clients of ASAP Agri have already forgotten this practice and worry it may fuel some corruption.

Rodion Rybchynskyi:

So far there are no clear proposals on the memorandum on grain volumes. Usually, discussions on this issue begin in July, when it is at least somewhat clear what the wheat and barley harvest will be. It’s too early to talk about corn now, because it’s just growing. The signing of the memorandum usually takes place in September.

Within GRAIN UKRAINE CONFERENCE on May 30-31, Kateryna Mudriian, Chief Agriculture Analyst of ASAP Agri, asked Gorbachov Nikolay, the President of Ukrainian Grain Association, whether we have something to worry about or if it is just a routine practice for Ukraine, targeting solely wheat market, as always.

Mykola Gorbachov:

Today, the memorandum is the only effective system of cooperation between exporters, grain producers and the government. We do not have another legislative system. But so far no one from the ministry has come to us with a proposal to sign, neither political nor technical. Flour millers always want to limit exports so that they have the cheapest resource, and this is understandable. But I want to remind you that we in Ukraine process no more than 3-3.5 MMT of wheat into flour per year, while our production is more than 20 MMT. Therefore, we depend more on what we export. Because it is the stability of the currency, it is an increase in production volumes, and an improvement in quality. Because the more volume and more quality and more expensive the farmer grows and sells his products, the more motivated and interested he will be to plant next year.

ASAP Agri decided to recollect what were the sizes of the latest Memorandums, and even tried to model a pessimistic scenario of Memorandum. If it is 91% of the export surplus, we could see at least 12 MMT of wheat in the draft Memorandum. And this figure, of course, depends on what Carry-In, Crop and Consumption figures each analyst uses.