Ample supply remains the dominant theme in the global wheat market, with USDA’s September WASDE confirming record-high output and swelling exportable surpluses that continue to weigh on prices.

Global 2025/26 wheat production was lifted by 9.3 MMT to a fresh record of 816.2 MMT. The biggest upward revisions came from Australia (+3.5 MMT to 34.5 MMT on favorable conditions), the EU (+1.85 MMT to 140.1 MMT based on harvest results), and russia (+1.5 MMT to 85 MMT, still below local estimates near 87 MMT). Ukraine and Canada were each raised by 1 MMT, to 36 MMT and 23 MMT, respectively, while Kazakhstan gained 0.5 MMT to 16 MMT.

Global exports were revised up only slightly, by 1.2 MMT to 214.7 MMT. Australia’s outlook rose 2 MMT to 25 MMT, while U.S. exports increased 0.7 MMT to 24.5 MMT, reflecting continued strength in HRW sales and shipments.

With production sharply higher but only limited changes to exports and consumption, global ending stocks are now projected at 264.1 MMT — nearly 4 MMT above August and above market expectations, mainly due to increases across major exporters. In contrast, U.S. ending stocks were cut by 0.7 MMT to 23 MMT, slightly below last year and below the average trade guess.

Overall, the report added fresh pressure to wheat markets. With global output and stocks climbing, the heavy supply outlook is expected to keep weighing on prices in the near term.

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