The USDA’s August WASDE report delivered a clear bearish signal for the corn market, as record U.S. yields and larger acreage pushed both domestic and global supplies in 2025/26 sharply higher.

Global corn production for 2025/26 was raised by 24.9 MMT to 1.289 BMT, driven almost entirely by the U.S., where output surged to 425.3 MMT on a record yield of 11.85 MT/HA (188.8 BU/ACR) and expanded harvested area. This is 26.3 MMT above July’s U.S. estimate and well above the average trade expectation of 406.2 MMT. A smaller upward revision was also made for Ukraine (+1.5 MMT to 32 MMT), though this remains below the recent FAS USDA forecast of 34.7 MMT, but higher than the current market consensus of around 30 MMT. By contrast, the EU production projection was cut by 2 MMT to 58 MMT on concerns that recent dry weather is threatening yield potential in some countries.

Global corn exports for 2025/26 climbed by 5.1 MMT to 200.9 MMT, entirely reflecting higher U.S. shipments, now pegged at 73 MMT. Additional increases from Ukraine (+1.5 MMT to 25.5 MMT) offset a minor cut for the EU exports. On the demand side, global consumption rose by 13.4 MMT to 1.289 BMT, supported by stronger feed use in the U.S., Egypt, and Mexico.

Even so, the production surge outweighed demand gains, lifting global ending stocks for 2025/26 to 282.5 MMT, up 10.5 MMT from July and only slightly below 2024/25’s level of 283.1 MMT. This came in above the average trade expectation of 278.3 MMT. In the U.S., ending stocks for 2025/26 jumped by 11.6 MMT to 53.8 MMT (2.1 BLN BU), also above the average trade estimate of 48.3 MMT (1.9 BLN BU), reflecting the scale of the supply shock.

For the current 2024/25 MY, world corn balance was little changed. Brazil’s production remained steady at 132 MMT despite strong safrinha yields. U.S. exports were lifted again on a robust sales pace, while China’s imports were revised down by 1 MMT to just 4 MMT.

In summary, the August report confirmed a significant loosening of both U.S. and global corn supply outlooks. With record U.S. yields feeding into larger global availabilities, the market’s bearish tone has deepened. Chicago corn futures slumped sharply after the release, down by 10–15¢/bu along the nearest curve, with the Dec contract breaking the 4 USD/BU mark.