
The USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report, released on 30 June, delivered no major surprises but still added downward pressure to wheat, as inventories came in above expectations. Corn also slipped, with figures largely in line with forecasts but offering no fresh support. Soybeans, despite stocks exceeding estimates, traded mixed — posting minor gains or losses depending on the futures contract — as the market shrugged off the bearish signal amid slightly lower-than-expected planted area.
Corn: inventories weigh on market despite aligning with forecasts
U.S corn
stocks as of 1 June 2025 were reported at 117.96 MMT, broadly in line with
trade expectations but down from 126.93 MMT a year earlier. The figure
confirmed a tighter supply compared to last year but failed to lift prices,
which slipped further under ongoing pressure from strong production outlooks.
Soybeans: market largely shrugs off slightly bearish print
U.S soybean
stocks were estimated at 27.43 MMT, up from 26.4 MMT last year and above the
trade estimate of 26.67 MMT. Still, the market showed little concern, with
futures hovering near unchanged — some contracts posting modest gains, others
slight losses. Traders largely overlooked the heavier stocks figure, focusing
instead on a modest acreage cut and a technical recovery after the previous
week’s sharp drop.
Wheat: stocks surpass expectations, reinforce bearish tone
U.S. wheat
inventories came in at 23.16 MMT, above the average trade guess of 22.75 MMT
and significantly higher than 18.94 MMT last year. The larger-than-expected
figure reinforced concerns over ample supply and added to the broader weakness
already weighing on global wheat markets.
In summary, the USDA’s grain stocks report was viewed as neutral to slightly bearish for corn, bearish for wheat, and marginally bearish for soybeans.
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