
The June WASDE report kept its
global wheat production forecast for 2025/26 virtually unchanged at a record
808.6 MMT, reinforcing expectations of ample global supply. The EU's output
rose by 0.6 MMT to 136.6 MMT, supported by better crop conditions in Spain,
while India's estimate was raised by 0.5 MMT to 117.5 MMT.
Global wheat exports for
2025/26 were revised up by 1.3 MMT to 214.3 MMT. The U.S. export forecast
increased by 0.7 MMT to 22.5 MMT, driven by stronger early-season sales, while
the EU’s was lifted by 0.5 MMT to 34.5 MMT.
Global ending stocks for
2025/26 are now projected at 262.8 MMT, down 3 MMT from last month and below
the average trade estimate. In the U.S., stocks are forecast at 24.5 MMT, down
0.7 MMT m/m due to stronger exports. Although this is below trade expectations,
it remains 7% higher y/y.
For the current 2024/25
season, global ending stocks were lowered by 1.2 MMT to 263.9 MMT, mainly due
to a downward revision for russia. Meanwhile, China's wheat import forecast for
2024/25 was raised by 0.7 MMT to 4 MMT.
Overall, the report delivered
few surprises. While record-high global production continues to weigh on
prices, lower global and U.S. ending stocks, along with stronger U.S. exports,
are helping to partially offset the bearish pressure.
Detailed outlook for other commodities is available for subscribers of ASAP Agri Premiumhttps://asapagri.com/products/premium
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