The June WASDE report kept its global wheat production forecast for 2025/26 virtually unchanged at a record 808.6 MMT, reinforcing expectations of ample global supply. The EU's output rose by 0.6 MMT to 136.6 MMT, supported by better crop conditions in Spain, while India's estimate was raised by 0.5 MMT to 117.5 MMT.

Global wheat exports for 2025/26 were revised up by 1.3 MMT to 214.3 MMT. The U.S. export forecast increased by 0.7 MMT to 22.5 MMT, driven by stronger early-season sales, while the EU’s was lifted by 0.5 MMT to 34.5 MMT.

Global ending stocks for 2025/26 are now projected at 262.8 MMT, down 3 MMT from last month and below the average trade estimate. In the U.S., stocks are forecast at 24.5 MMT, down 0.7 MMT m/m due to stronger exports. Although this is below trade expectations, it remains 7% higher y/y.

For the current 2024/25 season, global ending stocks were lowered by 1.2 MMT to 263.9 MMT, mainly due to a downward revision for russia. Meanwhile, China's wheat import forecast for 2024/25 was raised by 0.7 MMT to 4 MMT.

Overall, the report delivered few surprises. While record-high global production continues to weigh on prices, lower global and U.S. ending stocks, along with stronger U.S. exports, are helping to partially offset the bearish pressure.

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