Next week, the ASAP Agri team embarks on its highly anticipated wheat crop tour across Ukraine, aiming to assess the production outlook for the 2025/26 marketing year. 

While many market participants anticipate a decline in Ukraine’s wheat production compared to last year — with the Agriculture Minister this week estimating the crop at 20 to 22 MMT — the goal of the ASAP Agri tour is to assess the true yield potential on the ground. This means closely examining how regionally diverse and often contrasting weather conditions have shaped crop development across the country.

Key focus areas:

1. Western Ukraine: The team will compare farmer feedback with field observations. Many growers report delayed spring growth due to unusually cool conditions and persistent rainfall, both factors expected to weigh on yields.

2. Southern Ukraine (particularly, Kherson): The impact of a late-April frost remains uncertain. While satellite imagery and local reports suggest possible crop stress or damage, on-the-ground verification is critical to assess the extent of losses and any signs of recovery.

3. Eastern Ukraine: Here, the main concern is a long-running drought, which started last autumn and only partially eased in May. A central question is whether improved grain-filling (1000 kernel weight) can compensate for the expected low ear count per square meter.

4. Central belt (Kyiv, Cherkasy, Poltava): This zone appears more stable. ASAP Agri will evaluate whether this region can help offset production losses elsewhere and provide a yield “buffer.”

In addition to agronomic assessments, the ASAP team will also engage with farmers on key market-relevant topics, including:

- The potential delay in the 2025 wheat harvest due to slower crop development;

- Early expectations around the split between milling and feed wheat qualities — a critical issue for exporters and processors.

This crop tour has been made possible thanks to the support of QSS Global — a leading international surveying company and one of the key players in the inspection of grains, oilseeds, and processed agricultural products.

With over 20 years of experience and a presence in more than 20 countries, including Ukraine, QSS Global ensures transparent data collection and provides independent, objective analytics for both Ukrainian and international markets.

The partnership with QSS enhances trust in the results of the crop tour and contributes to the sustainable development of global trade in Ukrainian grain.

For full access to field updates, yield projections, and on-the-ground insights throughout the tour, get in touch with ASAP Agri (Olga Ramazanova, WhatsApp: +380 50 883 7557).