The European Union has officially reintroduced import quotas on Ukrainian agricultural products, effective 6 June 2025. As Victoria Blazhko, Head of Editorial, Content & Analytics at ASAP Agri, noted at the Grain Ukraine Conference last week, the wheat quota has been set at 583 KMT for the remainder of the year, equivalent to 7/12 of the standard 1 MMT annual volume due to the mid-year start. Imports beyond this threshold will face a 95 EUR/MT tariff.

According to Blazhko, this shift is particularly significant for Ukraine, which exported 6.3 MMT of wheat to the EU in 2024, two-thirds of total EU wheat imports. In the current 2024/25 season (July–June), Ukraine remains the EU’s top supplier, already shipping 4.4 MMT — a 62% market share. With the new quota in force, Ukraine may need to reroute up to 3 MMT of wheat to alternative destinations. While global demand could absorb part of this volume, and a potentially smaller harvest may cap available supply, downward pressure on Ukrainian wheat prices is likely in the short term.

The corn quota is reinstated at 379 KMT until the end of 2025, representing 7/12 of the pre-war 650 KMT annual limit. However, given the EU’s heavy reliance on corn imports — especially from Ukraine — a zero-tariff policy remains in effect for Ukrainian corn, even beyond the quota. This is despite the official out-of-quota tariff of 94 EUR/MT. In the 2023/24 season, Ukrainian corn accounted for 70% of total EU corn imports, and has contributed 57% (or 10.3 MMT) so far in 2024/25 (July–June).

For barley, the 2025 quota is now 204 KMT, aligned with 7/12 of the annual 350 KMT quota. Imports above this limit face a 93 EUR/MT tariff. According to Blazhko, Ukrainian barley shipments to the EU have already dropped to 409 KMT this season, down from 964 KMT in 2023/24. With around 200 KMT still eligible under the quota until the end of the year, the impact is expected to be moderate, requiring only limited redirection of exports to other markets.