With the EU’s suspension of tariffs and quotas on Ukrainian agricultural exports — introduced in 2022 following russia’s full-scale invasion — set to expire on 5 June 2025, speculation is mounting over what steps Brussels will take next.

On 14 May, The Financial Times reported, citing EU diplomatic sources, that the bloc is preparing to impose significantly higher tariffs on Ukrainian imports within weeks. According to the report, the EU also plans to split the annual duty-free quota into 12 monthly allocations — a move aimed at curbing imports while negotiations continue.

The most significant impact would be on corn, with the annual quota expected to shrink from 4.7 MMT to just 650 KMT.

If implemented, the move would deal a major blow to Ukrainian corn exports, as nearly half of Ukraine’s corn currently goes to the EU. So far this season (October–April), Ukraine has already shipped around 7.6 MMT of corn to the EU, with Spain alone accounting for 2.3 MMT — making it one of the key destinations.

The discussed quota cut would be highly disruptive for Spanish buyers, warned Jorge de Saja, General Director of the Spanish Feed Industry Federation.

“An annual quota of 650 KMT would create serious logistical complications and force us to rely more heavily on alternative sources, which could be less efficient or more expensive for countries like Spain,” Saja told ASAP Agri.

The reduction threatens to sever a critical supply chain for Spain’s livestock sector. “Ukrainian corn is currently our most viable alternative to U.S. origin, especially with limited availability from Argentina, which is more of a long-term prospect than a near-term solution,” he added. “Such a move would disrupt established flows and could jeopardize feed security for Spanish buyers.”