Ukraine is gearing up to expand its barley exports in the 2025/26 marketing year, even as production is expected to shrink. Forecasts point to a reduced crop — ranging from 5.1 MMT (FAS USDA) to a more optimistic 5.5 MMT (Ukrainian Grain Association) — due to a smaller sown area and weaker yield expectations.

The tighter supply outlook in the new season is compounded by falling carry-over stocks. USDA projects 2024/25 ending stocks at 591 KMT, down from 689 KMT the previous year. FAS USDA is even more bearish, estimating just 279 KMT.

However, a steep drop in domestic consumption — expected to fall to 1.9 MMT from 3.4 MMT — could open the door for greater export potential. FAS USDA forecasts barley exports at 3.2 MMT, up 1 MMT year-on-year, positioning Ukraine as a more assertive player in the global barley market.

Demand side: China holds the key

Global demand could ease in 2025/26, with China — the world’s top barley importer — remaining the biggest wildcard. So far, Chinese buying appears stable, but any policy changes restricting grain imports could shift demand significantly.

At the same time, China’s rapidly shrinking barley stocks — expected to drop from 1.7 MMT to just 0.5 MMT by the end of 2024/25 — may support continued imports. In addition, recently imposed tariffs on U.S. corn, which are expected to effectively halt U.S. corn shipments to China, could boost demand for alternative feed grains. However, the impact may be limited, as China has already been pivoting away from U.S. corn, increasingly relying on Brazilian imports.

In North Africa, the outlook is mixed. Favorable weather in Algeria and Tunisia may reduce their import needs. Morocco, however, faces a sharp decline in yields and stock levels, which could increase its dependence on foreign supply.

Conclusion: more competition ahead

With uneven demand and growing output in several key exporting regions, global barley trade is expected to become more competitive in the season ahead.

Detailed information and competitive analysis of the global barley market in the 2025/26 MY is available to ASAP Agri Premium subscribers.