As Ukraine’s 2025 planting campaign gains momentum, the combined pressure of drought, frost, and rising heat poses a serious risk to yields. While some crops are showing remarkable recovery, others may face total reseeding unless critical rainfall arrives soon.

With weather conditions remaining highly volatile, the next 10–14 days will be decisive for both yield prospects and the national crop balance.

According to GEFS forecasts, southern regions are expected to face above-average temperatures (+2 to +4°C anomalies) and very low precipitation (2–10 mm), further intensifying drought stress. Meanwhile, night frosts of –5°C are forecast for May 2–3, despite daytime highs of +16–22°C.

Central and northern regions have already reported significant frost damage from a cold spell in April. A Latifundist.com poll revealed that over 90% of respondents confirmed visible frost injury, though most crops may still recover — if rains arrive soon.

Meanwhile, eastern and southern regions continue to suffer from severe dryness. Without timely rainfall, replanting may extend beyond rapeseed to include wheat, barley, and even corn.

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