
Ukraine’s
wheat exports are holding firm this season, despite ongoing challenges and
shifting trade winds. From July to March in the 2024/25 marketing year, Ukraine
shipped nearly 13 MMT of wheat, just slightly down from 13.9 MMT a year
earlier, according to official data.
But beneath that headline figure lies a radical reshuffling of the export map, with three major shifts reshaping Ukraine’s wheat trade.
1. Spain still leads, but volume shrinks
Spain
remains Ukraine’s top wheat destination, but its lead is narrowing. Shipments
slipped to 3.1 MMT, down from 4.4 MMT a year ago. The decline reflects reduced
import needs amid higher local grain production last year.
2. Turkey drops off the map
Ukraine’s
third-largest wheat buyer last season, Turkey has all but disappeared from the
books. Exports to the country plunged to just 39 KMT, down from nearly 1 MMT
last season. The reasons? Tough competition from Russian wheat and Turkey’s
increasingly restrictive import policies, which have squeezed Ukraine out of
the market.
3. Asia and North Africa step up in a big way
While
Europe and Turkey scaled back, Asia and North Africa surged in to fill the
gap, powered by Ukraine’s Black Sea
export corridor. In Asia, Indonesia emerged as a key growth engine, doubling
its wheat purchases to 1.56 MMT and climbing to second place among Ukraine’s
top buyers. Vietnam also more than doubled its imports, reaching 886 KMT, while
Thailand’s demand soared sixfold, hitting 581 KMT.
In North Africa, Egypt strengthened its position as a key buyer, importing 1.54 MMT of Ukrainian wheat so far this season, up from 1.22 MMT last year and ranking as the third-largest destination. Algeria made a dramatic jump, with purchases soaring to 1.4 MMT from just 270 KMT the year before, while Tunisia more than doubled its imports, reaching 675 KMT and marking a clear expansion of Ukraine’s presence in the region.
Christina Serebriakova, CEO of ASAP Agri and Broker at Atria Brokers, will unpack these evolving trade flows and the competitive landscape for Ukrainian wheat in the new season at EuroGrainExchange 2025 in Bucharest on 10-11 April.
Register here: https://eurograinevents.com/registration-form
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