by Inna Stepanenko

The global wheat market could see an untypically wide range of import possibilities from key buyers in the 2025/26 MY, Rory Deverell, writer of the Fryers Reports and owner of Black Silo Commodity Consulting, said at a Trend&Hedge Club online meeting on 26 March, where ASAP Agri serves as a media-partner.

Turkey’s wheat imports could increase in the 2025/26 MY due to higher domestic demand, but the extent of the growth remains uncertain, Deverell said. Under an optimistic scenario, Turkey’s wheat imports could reach up to 10 MMT in 2025/26 MY, while a pessimistic outlook suggests around 4 MMT, he noted. "The growth in import demand may be overwhelming, but this assumption is not guaranteed," Deverell said.

Discussing Egypt, Deverell expressed skepticism about the country reaching 11-12 MMT of wheat imports in the current season. For 2025/26 MY, he estimated Egypt’s wheat imports between 10 MMT and 13 MMT, citing economic, social, and political challenges as a factor limiting potential growth of import demand.

China’s wheat import prospects remain highly uncertain, with a potential range of 3-14 MMT for 2025/26 MY, Deverell said, describing the country as difficult to predict.

The combined wheat imports of Turkey, Egypt, and China in 2025/26 MY could range from less than 17 MMT to as high as 37 MMT, Deverell pointed. “Such a huge swing in import demand is not normal for the market,” he said. Wheat imports by these three countries are estimated at 23-24 MMT in 2024/25 MY.