Ukrainian soybean exports dropped by 35% m/m to 214 KMT during 1–19 March, according to customs data. The key reason is a sharp decline in demand from Egypt — one of Ukraine’s top buyers. 

Market participants note that Egypt already secured substantial volumes from both Ukraine and the U.S. last month. And with Brazil expected to deliver a record soybean crop in 2025 — despite mixed local forecasts — global competition is intensifying.

According to traders, Egyptian crushers currently find U.S. soybeans more cost-effective than Ukrainian ones. For comparison, a Panamax of U.S. soybeans was recently offered at 425 USD/MT CIF Egypt, while coasters of Ukrainian soybeans were priced slightly higher at 427 USD/MT CIF. Meanwhile, Brazilian soybeans are entering the global market at even lower prices, thanks to the peak of the country’s harvest campaign.

There may be a glimmer of hope in Europe. Ukrainian soybeans could see stronger demand from the EU if it proceeds with its proposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. soybeans. While the decision has been postponed for now, the EU remains Ukraine’s largest soybean buyer, accounting for around 44% (1 MMT) of total exports between September 2024 and February 2025.

For deeper insights into Ukraine’s soybean market outlook and global trends, attend the "Soybean and Meal Market" conference, taking place on 27 March in Kyiv. Organized by APK-Inform and the Ukraine Pulse & Soybean Association, the event brings together top market players, with ASAP Agri as a media partner. 

Victoria Blazhko, Head of Editorial, Content & Analytics at ASAP Agri, will speak on “Trade War 2.0” and how it could reshape the global soybean market. She will also moderate the session “Global Trends and Peculiarities of the Ukrainian Soybean Market,” featuring expert insights into the key drivers and future prospects for the industry.