Amid a volatile trade environment, the global corn market continues to be shaped by fundamental factors such as production shifts, domestic demand pressures, and weather uncertainties. While Brazil’s corn production is set to rise, its exports may fall short due to growing domestic demand. Argentina faces weather and acreage challenges, while expectations for record yields in the U.S. may be overly optimistic, as last year’s favorable conditions may not repeat. Alina Fedyay-Zyrianska, Global Grain Research at Avere Commodities, shared her insights on these key trends during the 12 March online meeting at the Trend & Hedge Club, where ASAP Agri serves as an information partner.

Brazil: higher production, lower exports

Fedyay projects Brazil’s corn production at 128 MMT in the 2025/26 MY (2024/25 in USDA balance sheets), up from 119 MMT last year, driven by a 5% y/y increase in planted area. This estimate exceeds the USDA’s current 126 MMT forecast.

However, she expects Brazil’s corn exports to reach only 40 MMT, 4 MMT below the USDA’s projection, citing higher domestic consumption and increased stock retention.

“Brazil’s domestic market absorbs about 70% of total corn production, with the ethanol industry being a key driver of expansion. This year, we’ve seen local processors outbid exporters,” Fedyay explained.

She also emphasized that late April weather will be critical for Brazil’s crop development and pricing. With one-third of the crop to be planted outside the optimal window, it remains vulnerable to potential dry conditions.

Argentina: smaller crop, stable exports

For Argentina, Fedyay forecasts a 47 MMT corn crop in 2025/26 (2024/25 in USDA balance sheets), below the USDA’s 50 MMT estimate, citing reduced acreage and weather risks.

She aligns with the USDA’s 36 MMT export forecast but cautions that actual exports will depend on farmer selling behavior.

“Argentinian farmers often prefer to hold onto grain stocks, waiting for better market conditions,” she noted.

Ukraine: expanding production, higher exports

Fedyay projects Ukraine’s corn production will increase to 30 MMT in 2025/26, up from 26.8 MMT last year, supported by expanded planting. Corn, alongside sunflower, remains one of the most profitable crops for Ukrainian farmers, while soybean margins are declining.

She expects Ukrainian corn exports to rise to 25 MMT, compared to 22 MMT this season.

U.S.: acreage growth, record yield questionable

For the U.S., Fedyay agrees that corn remains the most profitable crop, leading to expanded planted area in 2025.

However, she remains skeptical of the USDA’s current yield projections.

“The USDA AgForum estimates rely on both acreage growth and record-high yields. Given that last year’s record yield was achieved under generally favorable weather, repeating that performance in 2025 will be challenging,” she said.

Key market factors to watch

According to Fedyay, several factors could shape the global corn market:

- Uncertainty surrounding new record U.S. yields.

- Brazil’s exports potentially capped at 40 MMT, below the USDA’s 44 MMT estimate.

- A possibility that Ukraine’s corn production may fall short of 30 MMT.

These factors suggest the global corn market may not be as bearish as currently perceived.

All forecasts are by Alina Fedyay and should not be considered official Avere Commodities estimates.