The “Trade war 2.0” is escalating, with the EU now announcing retaliatory measures against U.S. imports in response to the 25% global tariffs on steel and aluminum, effective 12 March. While the final list of countermeasures is still under negotiation, it may include tariffs on U.S. corn and soybeans.

 As always, ASAP Agri closely monitors market dynamics, providing timely insights into how shifting trade policies reshape the industry. Our analysts have examined the potential ripple effects on global agricultural markets and whether Ukrainian exporters could gain a competitive edge from these developments.

 For exclusive expert commentary, we spoke with Jorge de Saja, General Director of the Spanish Feed Industry Federation, who shares his insights on the implications for European grain and oilseed demand.

 

Inna Stepanenko, Chief Analyst at ASAP Agri


Kateryna Mudriian, Chief Analyst at ASAP Agri

EU retaliatory tariffs: what’s happening?

On 12 March, the European Commission announced that it would impose swift and proportionate countermeasures on U.S. imports following the Trump administration’s 25% global tariffs on steel and aluminum.

The EU’s retaliatory response will be implemented in two stages:

  • 1 April: The bloc will allow the suspension of its 2018 and 2020 countermeasures against the U.S. to expire, reinstating tariffs on American goods to offset an estimated 8 BLN EUR in losses to EU steel and aluminum exporters.
  • Mid-April: The Commission will introduce new countermeasures targeting U.S. exports, potentially including soybeans, in response to tariffs that have impacted over 18 BLN EUR in EU trade. These measures will be finalized following consultations with EU member states and stakeholders.

While Brussels remains open to negotiations, it has stated that it will take necessary action to protect European economic interests.

When it comes to agriculture, the key concern is whether U.S. corn and soybeans will be targeted.

Why the EU was never a major market for U.S. corn


Victoria Blazhko, Head of Editorial, Content & Analytics at ASAP Agri

Historically, the EU has never been a significant buyer of U.S. corn.  “Ukraine has long been — and will continue to be — the dominant supplier to the EU due to geographical proximity, competitive pricing, and preferential trade agreements. The logistical advantage allows Ukrainian corn to reach EU markets faster and at lower transportation costs compared to the U.S.”, said Victoria Blazhko, Head of Editorial Content and Analytics at ASAP Agri.


Another key factor is the EU’s strict regulations on genetically modified (GMO) crops. Most U.S. corn is GMO, while EU import policies favor non-GMO varieties. Even when U.S. corn is imported, it must undergo a complex biotech approval process, creating additional trade barriers.  

However, this year has seen a notable exception, with the EU — mainly Spain — significantly increasing its purchases of U.S. corn, pushing its share in imports up to 12%.

“But this surge is more of a short-term market adjustment rather than the beginning of a lasting trend. The primary driver of this shift wasn’t policy change — it was price. Despite past reluctance to import GMO corn, Spain, one of the more flexible EU members on this issue, opted for economic pragmatism over regulatory preference. When faced with a choice between expensive non-GMO corn and competitively priced U.S. corn, Spanish buyers took the cost-effective option,” Blazhko explained.

 

 

If the EU imposes new tariffs on U.S. corn, Ukrainian corn exports could see a modest boost as U.S. corn loses competitiveness in the EU market. However, expectations should remain realistic.

Christina Serebriakova, CEO at ASAP Agri

"Spain—the largest importer of U.S. corn this season—has already stepped back from the market after securing sufficient stocks. Any shift in trade flows will take time to materialize and is unlikely to be dramatic. In general, Ukraine has some opportunity to increase sales to Spain between March and June, before Brazilian corn enters the market," said Christina Serebriakova, CEO of ASAP Agri and Broker at Atria Brokers.


Jorge De Saja, General Director of the Spain Feed Industry Federation

However, uncertainty remains high regarding how the situation will unfold.

"I have reasonable doubts that the situation will play out exactly as announced, with full tariffs from both the American and European sides. Some form of middle ground is likely to emerge. But if these tariffs do take effect, then yes, this presents a clear opportunity for Ukrainian corn, sunflower, and protein markets as a whole," said Jorge de Saja, General Director, Spanish Feed Industry Federation.

He also noted that the EU's decision-making process on trade retaliation is slow and complex. "It could take anywhere from several weeks to two months before these tariffs are implemented. So, it’s safe to assume they wouldn’t take effect before late May or early June — possibly even later given the complexities of our regulations," de Saja added.

Soybeans: bigger deal for U.S.-EU trade

Unlike corn, soybeans represent a major trade flow between the U.S. and the EU.


The U.S. consistently ranks as the second-largest supplier of soybeans to the EU, holding a market share of about 40% over the past five years. In the first half of 2024/25 (July-December), the U.S. shipped 3.5 MMT of soybeans to the EU, with volumes peaking in October-December — a key export window.

 

The EU also ranked as the second-largest importer of U.S. soybeans in the 2024/25 marketing year (September-January), purchasing 4.3 MMT, which accounted for 12% of total U.S. soybean exports.

If the EU proceeds with retaliatory tariffs on U.S. soybeans, Brazil—harvesting a record crop—is in a prime position to step in as a key supplier.

De Saja highlighted the potential consequences for European buyers:

"Brazil is already stepping in. Brazilian soybean prices have surged in recent hours [after retaliatory tariffs were announced] and will likely continue climbing. Meanwhile, the entire commodity market is under shock. European livestock producers need protein feed, and if U.S. soybeans are hit with tariffs, we’ll be scrambling for alternatives. That means higher costs and, ultimately, more expensive European meat products."

Ukraine could also seize an opportunity to expand its soybean exports to the EU, but the extent of its participation will depend on pricing dynamics and supply availability.

Currently, Ukraine’s soybean stocks are under pressure, as domestic crushing has increased, and earlier-season exports have already tightened supplies.

Short-sighted strategy? EU’s approach under fire

While Ukraine stands to gain in some areas, industry experts argue that the EU’s handling of the situation lacks strategic foresight. De Saja criticized the EU’s approach to retaliation, arguing that economic pragmatism should have played a bigger role in the decision-making process.

"Frankly, the EU has not been very strategic in this situation. While we are still making announcements, China has already acted. Chinese tariffs are in place, making U.S. meat exports to China significantly more expensive. Spain — and Europe as a whole, but especially Spain — is a major supplier of pork to the Asian market, particularly China."

He emphasized that the EU could have leveraged the situation to its advantage by excluding soybeans and corn from the retaliation list. "If we had deliberately excluded soybeans and corn from retaliation measures, our meat exports would have gained a stronger competitive edge in Asian markets. Now, our American competitors are being pushed out of China, and we stand to gain. If practical economic considerations had been prioritized, these commodities would have been left off the list to support our meat industry."

However, uncertainty remains high, and the full impact of the tariffs is still unclear. "We are facing several weeks of uncertainty, and now is a good time to ‘go fishing’ in the market for better supply deals. Whether this turns into an urgent need or just an increase in demand remains to be seen," de Saja added.

More insights on competition in the Spanish corn market will be shared by Christina Serebriakova, CEO of ASAP Agri and Broker at atria Brokers, during a panel discussion at EuroGrainExchange 2025, taking place on April 10-11 in Bucharest.

Meanwhile, Kateryna Mudriian, Chief Oilseeds & Oils Analyst at ASAP Agri, will be a featured panelist at the "Soybean and Meal Market" conference on March 27 in Kyiv, where she will provide expert analysis on global soybean meal trends and Ukraine’s expanding role in the market.

Save the dates!