After publication of March corn WASDE report, CBOT futures increased a bit, as global corn ending stocks were trimmed by 1.4 MMT to 288.9 MMT, below the average trade expectations. Meanwhile, U.S. corn stocks were left unchanged, despite market expectations for a reduction. This cut was done mostly on reconsideration of 2023/24 MY balance. The estimate of 2023/24 crop was cut for Brazil by 3 MMT to 119 MMT, and raised for Argentina by 1 MMT to 51 MMT. Meanwhile, 2024/25 MY global corn production was lowered only slightly by 0.3 MMT to 1.212 BMT, with 1 MMT reduction to South Africa to 16 MMT was offset by upward revision of crop estimates for russia (+0.75 to 14 MMT) and Ukraine (+0.3 to 26.8 MMT).

World corn exports for 2024/25 were reduced by 2.9 MMT to 186.4 MMT. Brazil’s export forecast was cut by 2 MMT to 44 MMT based on observed shipments to date. South Africa’s export was reduced by 0.9 MMT to 1.7 MMT.

China’s corn import projection was again lowered, this time by 2 MMT to 8 MMT for the 2024/25 MY, which was widely anticipated.

The report is seen as largely neutral, with no changes to U.S. corn balance and expected reduction to China’s imports.

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