
After publication of March corn WASDE
report, CBOT futures increased a bit, as global corn ending stocks were trimmed
by 1.4 MMT to 288.9 MMT, below the average trade expectations. Meanwhile, U.S.
corn stocks were left unchanged, despite market expectations for a reduction.
This cut was done mostly on reconsideration of 2023/24 MY balance. The estimate
of 2023/24 crop was cut for Brazil by 3 MMT to 119 MMT, and raised for
Argentina by 1 MMT to 51 MMT. Meanwhile, 2024/25 MY global corn production was
lowered only slightly by 0.3 MMT to 1.212 BMT, with 1 MMT reduction to South
Africa to 16 MMT was offset by upward revision of crop estimates for russia
(+0.75 to 14 MMT) and Ukraine (+0.3 to 26.8 MMT).
World corn exports for 2024/25 were reduced
by 2.9 MMT to 186.4 MMT. Brazil’s export forecast was cut by 2 MMT to 44 MMT
based on observed shipments to date. South Africa’s export was reduced by 0.9
MMT to 1.7 MMT.
China’s corn import projection was again
lowered, this time by 2 MMT to 8 MMT for the 2024/25 MY, which was widely
anticipated.
The report is seen as largely neutral, with
no changes to U.S. corn balance and expected reduction to China’s imports.
Detailed outlook for other commodities is available for subscribers of ASAP Agri Premium Outlook https://asapagri.com/products/premium
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