ASAP Agri CEO Christina Serebryakova spoke with Latifundist about how Donald Trump’s tariff wars could reshape corn, soybean, and rapeseed markets and what this means for Ukrainian producers.

Q: The United States has imposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico (which were postponed for implementation to April), and China, with Europe potentially next. How could this affect global markets?

Christina Serebryakova: The newly introduced U.S. tariffs and retaliatory measures have triggered significant uncertainty across financial markets. Our Head of Insights & Analytics, Olivier Bouillet, notes that the biggest concern for the U.S. is inflation, which raises fears about economic stability. As a result, the S&P 500 and the U.S. dollar index have dipped below their pre-election November 2024 levels.

The impact on agricultural markets depends largely on how affected countries respond. The renewed trade war, reminiscent of 2018, now extends beyond China to Mexico and Canada, escalating tensions and reshaping trade flows.

On 04 March 2025, CBOT corn futures fell to their lowest level since early December 2024, while soybean prices hit their weakest since early January 2025, pressured by the tariff imposition.



Q: Some analysts believe Brazil will be the biggest winner, replacing U.S. corn and soybeans in China. Do you agree?

Regarding corn, there are no clear winners yet. U.S. corn has already been struggling in China, with purchases muted in recent months as Brazil steps in to fill the gap. Some analysts predict China’s corn imports could drop to nearly 5 MMT in 2024/25 MY. About corn to Mexico – it is a separate topic, connected a lot with logistics competitiveness of Brazil.


As for soybeans, Brazil stands to benefit significantly. Last season, the U.S. supplied 19 MMT—or 19% of China’s soybean imports. With Brazil’s abundant soybean production and strong existing ties with China, it is well-positioned to capitalize on this shift.




Q: Could Mexico, as the largest buyer of U.S. corn, switch to Brazilian supplies?

If trade restrictions persist, Mexico—the world’s largest corn importer—may reduce U.S. purchases. While Brazil could emerge as an alternative supplier, logistical challenges remain. ASAP Agri’s parent company, Atria Brokers, has opened a Brazilian office this year, and we have surveyed Brazilian corn exporters, who reported little interest from Mexico at this stage.


U.S. rail infrastructure provides a major cost advantage. According to Ouro Safra, Mexico occasionally buys Brazilian corn, but rail efficiency makes a large-scale switch unlikely. Julio Lombardi of Biond Agro highlights that all Brazilian corn exports to Mexico rely on vessels, making them significantly more expensive than U.S. shipments.

Q: What countermeasures do you expect from Canada and Mexico?

The situation remains uncertain. On 7 March, Donald Trump postponed 25% tariffs on many imports from Mexico and some imports from Canada for a month amid widespread fears of the economic fallout from a broader trade war.

Herewith, in case it will be introduced since April, looks like Mexico has a better chance of replacing U.S. corn than Canada does of finding new buyers for its canola oil. Canada exports 90% of its canola crop as seeds and processed products. The U.S. is its top market, typically accounting for 90% of canola oil exports.

Q: Canada’s canola industry is considering redirecting exports to Europe. Does this pose a competitive threat to Ukrainian rapeseed?

If trade barriers remain, Canada could face a canola surplus this season and next, pressuring prices in Winnipeg and on the Euronext exchange.

Australia remains Ukraine’s main rapeseed competitor in the EU. However, Canadian canola imports to Europe have surged eightfold this season. Our data suggests that European sunflower processing plants have been running on rapeseed for about two months, with more Canadian shipments expected soon.

Meanwhile, Australia regained access to China’s canola market in May 2022 after a two-year ban over quality concerns. With Australia refocused on China, Canada may intensify its competition in Europe.

Q: The U.S. seems to be hurting itself by targeting its biggest agricultural trade partners. What are its alternative markets?

I recently discussed this with Matt Ammermann, Risk Management Manager at StoneX. He believes U.S. corn has already adjusted to China’s absence. However, to Mexico the U.S. road is clean still until at least summer, when Brazilian supply comes to market.

For soybeans, Matt confirmed our view that the U.S. will pivot towards the Middle East. Meanwhile, Ukrainian corn faces its toughest competitive environment this season. As of 5 March, the spread between Ukrainian corn on CPT POC basis against CME peaked to 40 USD/MT—last seen at the start of the season—due to an overheated Ukrainian CPT market in February and pressure on U.S. prices from Trump’s tariff policies. For comparison, in early January, the Ukrainian corn spread narrowed to nearly 20 USD/MT, prompting a wave of contracts for January-February deliveries.

As for soy, as of 05 March, Ukrainian CPT POC spread with CME reached 20 USD/MT compared to a zero spread in January 2025.


Q: Trump recently urged farmers to prepare for increased domestic sales. Does this signal a shift towards bioethanol?

Trump did not specify grains but referred to agricultural products in general. The lack of details leaves room for interpretation.

One possibility is that U.S. farmers will be encouraged to produce more for domestic markets as import costs rise due to tariffs. Alternatively, his statement —“Get ready to start making a lot of agricultural product to be sold INSIDE of the United States”—may imply that the government intends to redirect surplus export supplies inward.

If so, the U.S. market could see an influx of domestic corn, potentially driving bioethanol production higher. While Trump is not a champion of green energy, he must balance support for both oil producers and Midwest farmers—two key voter bases. Increasing bioethanol mandates in corn-growing states while granting concessions to the oil industry could be a potential compromise.

Q: How do these developments impact Ukraine?

First, they exert downward pressure on global corn and soybean prices.

Mexico imports up to 23 MMT of U.S. corn annually. Even if Brazil replaces part of that, at least 11 MMT of surplus U.S. corn could spill into global markets. ASAP Agri’s trade flow matrix, presented at Global Grain 2024, shows this volume is equivalent to Brazil’s total corn exports to North Africa and the Middle East.

If U.S. and Brazilian corn end up substituting for each other, Ukrainian exporters still may face challenges. Currently, U.S. corn offers highly competitive pricing to North Africa, but there was a rumor about some quality issues in recent vessels from U.S. Since 26 February 2025, when Trump’s administration declared plans to implement 25% tariffs on imports from the European Union, EU buyers are reluctant to purchase U.S. grain, being afraid of the potential restrictions. Herewith, EU corn stocks remain high, further limiting demand.

About more insights on potential changes in the Ukrainian grain market due to Trump’s tariffs, Christina Serebriakova, CEO of ASAP Agri, will share in a detailed analysis during a panel discussion at the EuroGrainExchange 2025 conference, taking place on April 10-11 in Bucharest. Mark your calendars