The February WASDE report lowered global corn production for 2024/25 MY by 1.9 MMT to 1.212 BMT, largely driven by a reduction in South American output. Argentina’s harvest was cut by 1 MMT to 50 MMT, close to the average trade expectation, reflecting lower yields amid a prolonged drought. However, this figure remains above the forecast by local analysts. Brazil’s corn production was revised down by 1 MMT to 126 MMT, due to delays in second-crop corn planting, which may impact yield potential. While this figure is below the average trade estimate, it is still higher than local analysts' projections.

World corn exports for 2024/25 were reduced by 2.2 MMT to 189.2 MMT. Brazil’s export forecast was cut by 1 MMT to 46 MMT, Ukraine’s by 1 MMT to 22 MMT, and South Africa’s by 0.2 MMT to 2.6 MMT.

China’s corn import projection was again lowered, this time by 3 MMT to 10 MMT for the 2024/25 MY, which was widely anticipated.

Global corn ending stocks were trimmed by 3.0 MMT to 290.3 MMT, falling below the low end of trade expectations. Meanwhile, U.S. corn stocks were left unchanged, despite market expectations for a reduction.

The report is seen as largely neutral, as 2 MMT cut to South America production is offset by reduction of Argentina’s consumption by the same 2 MMT. Additionally, steady U.S. ending stocks and a reduction in Chinese imports are considered bearish factors.

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