Kateryna Mudriian, Chief Oilseed & Vegoil Analyst at ASAP Agri

Ukraine is making impressive progress in the soybean meal exports this season, thanks to its growing crushing capacity and export efforts. A major milestone was reached in Dec 2024 when Ukraine shipped its first-ever Handysize vessel of soybean meal to Spain. This was followed by another shipment to France in Jan 2025, marking significant progress in Ukraine’s efforts to access key European markets and compete with major suppliers like Argentina.

While Ukraine does not match the export volumes of giants like the U.S., Brazil, or Argentina, it is establishing itself as a strong regional player by targeting high-demand markets with adaptability and efficiency. Drawing on key insights that combine industry analytics and insider data, compiled by the ASAP Agri editorial team, Kateryna Mudriian, Chief Oilseed & Vegoil Analyst, analyzes the shifting global soybean meal market and explores strategic opportunities for Ukraine.

Global soybean meal landscape

Argentina

Argentina continues to dominate the global soybean meal market, accounting for 40–50% of global exports annually. Despite challenges such as droughts and supply chain disruptions, the country’s soybean meal production has remained robust, consistently ranging between 27–32 MMT per year. While production dipped in 2022/23 due to severe drought, a strong recovery is forecasted for 2024/25, with output expected to reach 32 MMT.

For the 2024/25 season, Argentina’s soybean meal exports are projected to hit 28 MMT, according to the USDA. Key markets include the EU-27, Vietnam, Indonesia, and other Asian countries, where demand for high-protein animal feed remains strong. Notably, from Sep to Nov 2024, Argentina shipped 8 MMT, nearly double the volume exported during the same period LY. The EU emerged as the largest importer, receiving over 3 MMT during this timeframe, fueled by soaring feed demand.

Brazil

Brazil, the world’s second-largest soybean meal exporter, continues to expand its presence in global markets. Soybean meal production has steadily increased, rising from 35.9 MMT in 2020/21 to a projected 42.4 MMT in 2024/25. This growth is driven by a significant increase in soybean crushing volumes, which have grown from 45–50 MMT in 2020/21 to an estimated 55 MMT in 2024/25, according to USDA data.

The biodiesel sector plays a crucial role in supporting these crushing volumes. Brazil’s mandatory biodiesel blending policies, requiring 12–15% biodiesel in diesel fuel, have significantly boosted domestic soybean oil consumption. Meanwhile, domestic soybean meal consumption has remained steady, ranging between 18–21 MMT annually, with 2024/25 consumption projected at 21 MMT, supported by the poultry and livestock industries.

About 70–80% of Brazil’s soybean meal production is exported, highlighting its importance in global supply chains. Exports have surged from 16.6 MMT in 2020/21 to a forecasted 22 MMT in 2024/25, driven by rising demand in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East.

The EU remains the largest buyer, with shipments rising from 9.98 MMT in 2023 to 10.3 MMT in 2024, fueled by its livestock and dairy industries. Asia, led by Vietnam and Indonesia, is a key growth market, with exports increasing from 9.81 MMT in 2023 to 10.23 MMT in 2024. The Middle East is also emerging as a significant destination, with shipments growing from 1.47 MMT in 2023 to 2.5 MMT in 2024. Other markets, including Africa, the Americas, and other European countries, collectively contribute over 1.5 MMT annually, providing diversification for Brazil’s exports.

United States

The U.S. ranks among the top three global soybean meal exporters, with production steadily increasing over the past five years. According to USDA data, output has increased from 45.9 MMT in 2020/21 to a projected 51.7 MMT in 2024/25, representing a 12.6% rise. This growth is largely driven by expanded crushing capacity, particularly in the Midwest, where new plants and facility upgrades have been completed. Strong domestic demand for soybean oil, fueled by renewable diesel mandates, and robust livestock feed needs have also played a critical role in boosting crushing volumes.

For the 2024/25 season, U.S. soybean meal exports are projected to hit a record 15.8 MMT, up from 14.6 MMT in the previous year, according to USDA forecasts. Early-season export performance has been impressive. As of 16 Jan, accumulated soybean meal exports for the 2024/25 marketing year reached 4.45 MMT, an 8% y/y increase and a record high for the period, putting the U.S. on track to meet its export target.

Key importers of U.S. soybean meal include the Philippines, Mexico, Colombia, and Vietnam. The Philippines’ strong demand is driven by its expanding poultry and livestock industries, which depend heavily on protein-rich animal feed. Mexico benefits from its proximity to the U.S. and favorable trade agreements, making soybean meal a critical component in its livestock feed supply. Vietnam, a growing market for U.S. soybean meal, is propelled by its rapidly expanding feed industry and livestock operations.

Ukraine's role in the global soybean meal market

Ukraine’s soybean crushing industry has grown steadily in recent years, with crush volumes forecasted to reach 1.9 MMT in 2024/25, up from 1.4 MMT in 2020/21. Soybean meal production has mirrored this growth, rising from 1.1 MMT in 2020/21 to a projected 1.5 MMT in 2024/25.  This growth is driven by rising soybean production, expanded domestic processing capacity, and robust demand for soybean meal in both domestic and export markets.

Christina Serebriakova, CEO of ASAP Agri and broker at Atria Brokers
A key milestone for Ukrainian soybean meal industry in the 2024/25 marketing year was achieved in Dec 2024, when the country shipped its first-ever Handysize vessel carrying 27.5 KMT of soybean meal to Spain. This was followed by another 27.44 KMT shipment to France in Jan 2025. “Ukraine is poised to further scale up soybean meal exports using Handysize vessels, as this approach allows the country to compete with rival Argentinian-origin products” said Christina Serebriakova, CEO of ASAP Agri and broker at Atria Brokers.

Ukraine’s soybean meal exports have already reached record highs this season, with 102 KMT shipped in Dec 2024 and a projected 105 KMT for Jan 2025. Cumulatively, soybean meal shipments for the first four months of the 2024/25 marketing year reached 284 KMT, compared to 248 KMT during the same period last season, according to official statistics.

That said, Ukraine accounts for just 1% of global soybean meal exports, a modest share compared to major players like Argentina (37%), Brazil (28%), and the United States (21%), which dominate high-volume markets in the EU, Asia, and the Middle East.

Where opportunities lie for Ukrainian soybean meal

Ukraine has solidified its role as a regional player in the global soybean meal market, focusing primarily on European and neighboring markets. In the 2024/25 MY, over 90% of Ukrainian soybean meal exports are destined for the EU. Poland and Hungary lead as top importers, collectively accounting for more than 60% of Ukraine’s EU-bound shipments. Other key destinations include Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, and Lebanon.

Ukraine’s geographic proximity to European markets provides a significant logistical edge, reducing transportation costs and increasing flexibility. This advantage is particularly significant in markets like Spain, Romania, and Italy, which are increasing their soybean meal imports, offering growing opportunities for Ukrainian soybean meal exports.

Jorge De Saja, General Director of the Spain Feed Industry Federation
“Price, availability and mostly, a slight increase in sows linked to the positive expectations of Spanish pig producers and meat exporters to foreign Asian markets (and not only China),” said Jorge De Saja, General Director of the Spain Feed Industry Federation, explaining the rising volumes of soybean meal imports to Spain. “We anticipate further increases as amino acids from China (lysine, valine, etc.) are currently subject to anti-dumping proceedings in the EU. Soy serves as an alternative to these microingredients.”

However, despite its advantages, Ukraine’s soybean meal export opportunities remain constrained by several challenges in the global market:

1. Limited Scale

Ukraine’s production volumes are relatively small compared to global leaders like Brazil and Argentina, limiting its ability to compete on a global scale.

2.          Price competition

South American exporters benefit from record harvests and lower production costs, enabling them to offer highly competitive prices. This makes it difficult for Ukraine to compete in price-sensitive markets, particularly in Asia and the Middle East.

3.     Product specifications:

Meeting international buyer requirements can be challenging for Ukrainian producers due to differences in product standard. “International buyers often prefer soybean meal with 44% or 46% protein content, whereas Ukrainian producers primarily offer 45%, which can create mismatches with buyer expectations,” said Christina Serebriakova.

Ahmet Yasin Ciftci, Chairman of SCI Holdings
This challenge becomes even more pronounced when compared to global competitors. "In Argentina, soybean meal is available in two quality grades: normal protein with a minimum protein content of 45-45.5% and hi-pro protein with a higher content of 47.5%," explained Ahmet Yasin Ciftci, Chairman of SCI Holdings, an international company specializing in agricultural trade, particularly niche products. He further noted, "U.S.-origin soybean meal typically exceeds these levels, with protein content ranging from 47.5% to 48%. Meanwhile, Brazilian soybean meal generally has lower quality, with a protein content of 45.5% and a slightly yellowish color. However, issues arise when Brazil contracts for 45.5% protein but includes flexibility, as there is a chance of loading soybean meal with lower protein content (e.g., 44-44.2%). This inconsistency makes Brazilian soybean meal less desirable for trading compared to Argentinian and U.S. options."

This material is the result of detailed research, structured and prepared by ASAP Agri experts, ensuring the accuracy and relevance of the information.

Since the beginning of the 2024/25 season, ASAP Agri forecasted that soybeans would play a role similar to rapeseed last season. We were the first to project improved forecasts for soybean meal exports from Ukraine and continue to monitor this trend closely, offering exclusive insights to our Premium subscribers.