By Victoria Blazhko and Kateryna Mudriian

As the curtain has already fallen on 2024, the oilseed market feels like a blockbuster hit — packed with record-breaking highs, unexpected twists, and plenty of suspense that sets the stage for 2025. At ASAP Agri, we have taken a closer look back at the defining moments of the past year and the trends poised to drive the storyline in the year ahead. Grab your seat — the next chapter is about to unfold!

 Act 1: Rise and fall of oilseed prices

Soybeans

CBOT soybean futures prices fell by more than 20% in 2024, despite beginning the year with all the swagger of a box office superstar. Starting above 12 USD/bu, the storyline quickly shifted as bearish forces took center stage. Record-breaking U.S. and Brazilian harvests, combined with sluggish demand from China, sent prices tumbling. By mid-Aug, U.S. soybean prices had sunk below 10 USD/bu — a shocking four-year low. Speculative sellers amplified the downward spiral, acting as antagonists in this unfolding drama.

But the plot thickened in Oct, as a series of twists breathed life back into the market. Surging Chinese imports, speculative short covering, and weather concerns in South America lifted prices off their lows. However, by year-end, soybeans remained largely anchored under 10 USD/bu, with South America’s record crop looming large and trade policy uncertainty casting a long shadow over the market.

 

Rapeseed

Euronext rapeseed futures prices delivered a 20% plot twist in 2024, transforming what began as a bleak performance into a rally worth watching. Prices plunged to 407 EUR/MT by late Feb, weighed down by ample global supplies, fierce competition from rival oils, and weak European biodiesel demand.

Just as the market seemed stuck in a slump, the narrative took a dramatic turn. Between Mar and Jul, concerns over 2024 crop yields sparked a recovery, pushing prices above 500 EUR/MT. While the summer influx of fresh crops applied temporary pressure, rapeseed regained momentum by mid-Sep. The final act delivered a burst of volatility, yet prices held their ground, closing the year above 500 EUR/MT.

Sunflower seeds

The sunflower seed market began 2024 cautiously, with CPT prices in Ukraine hovering between 340–460 USD/MT in the first half of the year. As the story unfolded, however, reduced production due to adverse weather and strong demand from crushers in the Black Sea region and Europe pushed prices to new heights. In Nov, Ukrainian CPT POC sunflower seed prices surged past 580 USD/MT, making the oilseed one of the year’s standout performers.

But as the final act approached, challenges mounted. Negative crush margins and weakening demand for sunflower oil from major importers cast shadows over earlier gains. Competition from cheaper soybean and palm oil intensified, forcing prices into a late-year correction. By the close of 2024, the market found itself grappling with fading momentum and growing pressure. Yet, with reduced sunflower seed availability expected in the first half of 2025, this story is far from its conclusion.


Act 2: Defining scenes from oilseed market in 2024

Brazil delivers a record-breaking soybean season

If 2024 had a leading actor, it was undoubtedly Brazil’s soybean industry. With a record-breaking production of 153 MMT and exports reaching an all-time high of 104.2 MMT, Brazil dominated the global stage in the 2023/24 MY. Driven by relentless demand from China — sourcing over 70% of its soybean imports from Brazil — the country cemented its role as the unchallenged powerhouse in global soybean trade.


Ukraine’s hit season for sunflower seed complex faces sequel troubles

Ukraine solidified its position as a global leader in processed sunflower products, exporting 4.7 MMT of sunflower meal and 6.3 MMT of sunflower oil during the 2023/24 season. It was a moment of triumph that underscored Ukraine’s ability to perform under pressure.

While Ukraine’s crushing and export operations were remarkable in 2023/24, the dwindling raw seed supply in 2024 cast a shadow over the 2024/25 MY. Production across Ukraine, Russia, and the EU fell by 5 MMT. This sharp drop tightened the global balance sheet to its lowest point since 2010/11, creating a high-stakes narrative for crushers and exporters. Ukraine played a central role in this unfolding drama, with adverse weather slashing its output by 2.5 MMT and driving the market’s supply challenges. As availability dwindled, the pressure on crushers intensified, leaving factories bracing for difficult decisions and a challenging road ahead.


EU increases reliance on rapeseed imports

In 2024/25, the EU’s dependence on rapeseed imports returned to record levels, with volumes projected at nearly 6.9 MMT. Declining domestic production forced the EU to lean heavily on suppliers like Canada and Ukraine to fill the gap.


Palm oil becomes a trendsetter of 2024

Palm oil took a leading role on the global vegetable oil market in 2024, with Malaysian futures surging by 25%. Prices peaked at 5,195 MYR/MT in Nov — the highest level since Jun 2022 — before correcting to 4,400–4,620 MYR/MT by year-end.

Supply constraints, driven by aging plantations, unpredictable weather, and limited expansion, kept production tight. Meanwhile, the awaited Indonesia’s B40 biodiesel mandate from 1 Jan 2025 added further tension, as buyers scrambled to secure supplies ahead of potential export restrictions. Palm oil’s commanding influence set the tone for price trends across competing oils, cementing its role as the ultimate trendsetter in 2024.


Act 3: What to watch in 2025?

Weather

As 2025 unfolds, weather quietly takes its place as a defining force in market dynamics. In the Black Sea region, winter’s unpredictability continues to keep operators on edge, with the risk of winterkill looming over rapeseed crops. However, the opening scene has been calm, with milder-than-usual temperatures offering a steady start and no major disruptions anticipated for now. South America, however, promises a far more dynamic narrative.

Olivier Bouillet, Head of Sales at KMR Agro & Head of Analytics & Insights at ASAP Agri“

"For now, record soybean production is on the horizon this spring in both Brazil and Argentina," remarked Olivier Bouillet, Head of Sales at KMR Agro and Head of Analytics & Insights at ASAP Agri. "While the market has partially priced this in, the full impact may still be underestimated. With weather continuing to play a pivotal role, the market will keep this subplot in sharp focus until harvest time.”

Soybean supply flood looms in 2025

The stage is set for a wave of soybean supply to flood global markets in 2025. Brazil is poised to deliver a near-record harvest of nearly 170 MMT, driven by expanded planting areas and favorable weather conditions, particularly in its southern regions. Adding to the scene, Argentina is expected to contribute another 52 MMT.

Biofuel demand

Biofuel demand introduces a fresh set of challenges in 2025 that could alter the script. In the U.S., a proposed bill allowing year-round E15 gasoline sales threatens to redirect incentives toward ethanol, potentially leaving soybean oil — a key biodiesel feedstock — in a weaker position.
Meanwhile, Indonesia’s ambitious B40 mandate, which aims to increase the biodiesel blend from 35% to 40%, is set to reshape the palm oil market.

EU deforestation law

The EU’s deforestation regulation, effective since 29 Jun, 2023, has introduced a game-changing subplot for global oilseed markets. While the application provisions have been postponed until 30 Dec, 2025, giving producers valuable time to adjust, the new requirements are set to reshape trade flows and market dynamics in the years ahead. Despite decreasing purchases in recent years, the EU still accounts for about 8-9% of global soybean and palm oil imports each, underscoring its significant influence on these markets.


Geopolitical tensions: Trade on thin Ice

Geopolitical tensions threaten to add a dramatic twist to the 2025 oilseed narrative, with trade policy once again taking the spotlight. Proposed 60% tariffs on Chinese imports by U.S. President Donald Trump have sparked fears of retaliation, potentially further slashing U.S. soybean exports to their largest buyer.

Ukraine’s crushing shift: new star emerges

In Ukraine, the crushing sector is preparing to rewrite its role in 2025. Late 2024 saw soybean oil exports hit record highs, as crushers began shifting focus from sunflower seeds to soybeans in an effort to escape negative margins. This trend is set to gain momentum in the new year, as shrinking sunflower seed availability forces many factories to adapt by ramping up soybean processing.

“During the 2024/25 marketing year, soybean has taken on the same importance for Ukrainian crushers as rapeseed did last year. A significant milestone occurred in Dec 2024, when Ukraine exported 27.5 KMT of soybean meal via handysize vessel to Spain for the first time in its history," said Christina Serebriakova, CEO at ASAP Agri and broker at Atria Brokers.

Full analysis, including the SFO Trade Matrix, is available exclusively to ASAP Premium subscribers.