The Jan WASDE report delivered a sharper-than-expected cut to U.S. corn production and stocks. The report reduced the U.S. corn yield well below trade expectations, slashing the 2024/25 harvest estimate by 7 MMT m/m to 377.6 MMT. Exports were trimmed by 0.6 MMT to 62.2 MMT due to smaller supply, while ending stocks were pegged at 39.1 MMT, down 5 MMT from Dec.

Separately, the U.S. quarterly corn stocks as of 1 Dec came in at 12.07 bbu, below expectations and slightly down from 12.17 bbu a year earlier.

Globally, the WASDE report cut 2024/25 corn production by 3.5 MMT to 1.21 BMT, driven by a sharp reduction in U.S. output. This was partially offset by upward revisions to China and russia’s crops. China’s corn production was raised by 2.9 MMT to a record 294.9 MMT based on official data, while russia's crop estimate increased modestly by 0.3 MMT to 13.3 MMT, basing on the latest rosstat data.

World 2024/25 corn exports were lowered by 1.6 MMT to 191.4 MMT, with Brazil’s export forecast cut by 1 MMT to 47 MMT.

China’s corn import projection was again reduced, this time by 1 MMT to 13 MMT for the 2024/25 MY.

Global corn ending stocks were trimmed by 3.1 MMT to 293.3 MMT, falling below the average trade expectation of 294.8 MMT.

The report is bullish, with significant reductions in U.S. production and stocks driving a rally in CBOT corn prices.

Detailed outlook for other commodities is available for subscribers of ASAP Agri Premium Outlook https://asapagri.com/products/premium