By Artem Rozhkov, Co-Founder of Atria Brokers

Dec should have been just another month of strong performance for Ukraine’s agricultural export machine—a system long renowned for its ability to feed the world. Instead, it turned into a story of breakdowns, bottlenecks, and brutal realities. Grain, oilseeds, byproducts—nothing was safe from the storm. Let’s cut through the noise and get straight to the heart of it. Numbers don't lie By the end of Dec, Ukraine’s total agricultural exports barely scraped past 5.05 MMT. That’s a 12% drop from Nov’s 5.75 MMT. Sure, things looked worse earlier in the month, and some recovery softened the blow, but let’s not sugarcoat it—it’s still a hit. Corn stood out as the only fighter in the grains category, managing a small but important increase. Dec corn exports climbed slightly to 2.6 MMT, up from 2.5 MMT in Nov. But that’s where the good news stops. Wheat? It didn’t just stumble—it crashed. Wheat exports dropped 40% m/m, from 1.3 MMT in November to just 801KMT. Barley wasn’t far behind in the damage, sliding 21%, from 155 KMT to 122 KMT. The numbers don’t lie—it was a rough ride for grains. The story was no different in the oilseed and vegetable oil segment, which faced a pounding. Sunflower seed, soybean, and rapeseed exports fell by an average of 25% compared to Nov. Vegetable oil exports were equally grim. Soybean oil took the hardest hit, plummeting 31% m/m, while sunflower oil and rapeseed oil fell by 22% and 19%, respectively. But here’s where it gets interesting: not everything was in the red. Sunflower meal exports came roaring back, surging 40% to 417 KMT, with China and France leading the charge. Soybean meal also showed surprising strength, climbing 20% m/m to 102 KMT, with Turkey, the Netherlands, and Pakistan snapping up shipments. Let’s not fool ourselves, though — these gains are like patching a sinking ship with duct tape. They’re notable, but they don’t come close to offsetting the broader collapse. What went wrong? Dec’s struggles weren’t just bad luck. They were the result of a perfect storm of chaos. New export regulations turned into a bureaucratic nightmare, delaying document approvals and stalling shipments in limbo. Then came the logistics breakdown. Railway deliveries to the Great Odesa ports — critical for export — suffered a significant decline. Why? Congested terminals, widespread power outages, and electric locomotives paralyzed by the energy crisis. Sure, diesel engines tried to step in, but they were more of a stopgap than a real solution. And then, of course, there’s the wildcard: farmers. Many producers opted to hold onto their grain, waiting for higher prices, all while the system strained under the weight of their decision to sit tight. What does all of this mean? That 12% export decline in Dec might not sound catastrophic, but it’s a warning shot. It hints at deeper cracks in the system—pressure from new regulations, a battered logistical network, and a market that’s still trying to stabilize. While the pockets of growth in sunflower meal and soybean meal are encouraging, they’re more like small victories than game-changers. The truth is, Ukraine’s agricultural export machine has taken a punch, but it’s far from knocked out. The real question now is how quickly the system can adapt, recover, and rebuild. Now that 2025 is underway, one thing is clear: Ukraine’s agri-export system has the resilience to recover, but it must confront its challenges head-on if it’s going to reclaim its status as a global powerhouse. No fluff. No sugarcoating. Just the hard facts. ASAP Premium subscribers receive such detailed comparisons of current month exports for all agricultural commodities from Ukraine on a weekly basis. Subscribe to ASAP Agri — your source of lively analytics every day!