
The Dec WASDE report made only a few changes
to the global corn balance, but they were notable. The main adjustments were
for the U.S., with the 2024/25 export forecast raised by 3.8 MMT to 62.9 MMT,
and an increase in corn use for ethanol. This resulted in a 5.1 MMT reduction
in stocks, bringing them down to 44.2 MMT, below trade expectations.
Overall, global 2024/25 corn exports were
raised by 3.2 MMT to 193.0 MMT, with no changes for other key exporters. Global
corn consumption was increased by a significant 8.2 MMT to 1.24 BMT, mainly on
upward revision for Brazil, U.S., Bangladesh, Iran and Ukraine. Thus, stocks
were cut by 7.7 MMT to 296.4 MMT, well below expectations.
At the same time, another 2 MMT was removed
from Chinese demand, with the import forecast now pegged at only 14 MMT.
As for world 2024/25 production, it was
reduced by 1.5 MMT to 1.22 BMT, with cuts to the EU, Mexico, and Indonesia
partially offset by a 0.3 MMT increase in Ukraine’s production forecast,
bringing it to 26.5 MMT.
Overall, the report is bullish, as the significant increase in global demand and the reduction in stocks have pushed CBOT prices up. On the other hand, the additional sizable cut to China's imports is adding pressure to the market
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