The Dec WASDE report made only a few changes to the global corn balance, but they were notable. The main adjustments were for the U.S., with the 2024/25 export forecast raised by 3.8 MMT to 62.9 MMT, and an increase in corn use for ethanol. This resulted in a 5.1 MMT reduction in stocks, bringing them down to 44.2 MMT, below trade expectations.

Overall, global 2024/25 corn exports were raised by 3.2 MMT to 193.0 MMT, with no changes for other key exporters. Global corn consumption was increased by a significant 8.2 MMT to 1.24 BMT, mainly on upward revision for Brazil, U.S., Bangladesh, Iran and Ukraine. Thus, stocks were cut by 7.7 MMT to 296.4 MMT, well below expectations.

At the same time, another 2 MMT was removed from Chinese demand, with the import forecast now pegged at only 14 MMT.

As for world 2024/25 production, it was reduced by 1.5 MMT to 1.22 BMT, with cuts to the EU, Mexico, and Indonesia partially offset by a 0.3 MMT increase in Ukraine’s production forecast, bringing it to 26.5 MMT.

Overall, the report is bullish, as the significant increase in global demand and the reduction in stocks have pushed CBOT prices up. On the other hand, the additional sizable cut to China's imports is adding pressure to the market