
The Dec WASDE report cut global wheat
production estimate for the 2024/25 MY by 1.8 MMT to 793.0 MMT, with the main downward
revision of harvest made for the EU and Brazil. Particularly, EU wheat crop
estimate was decreased by 1.3 MMT to 121.3 MMT on “harvest data showing lower
production for several member states”. Brazil's production was lowered by 0.4
MMT to 8.1 MMT on updated harvest data.
Global wheat exports for 2024/25 were cut by
about 1.0 MMT to 213.7 MMT, as cuts for EU and russia forecasts offset better
prospects for shipments from the U.S. and Ukraine. Expectations for russia were
reduced by 1.0 MMT to 47.0 MMT, as “the imposition of an export quota is
expected to constrain exports for the remainder of the marketing year”. EU’s
export potential was decreased by 1.0 MMT to 29.0 MMT. Also, Brazil’s export
potential was lowered by 0.2 MMT to 2.7 MMT. In turn, forecast for Ukraine was
raised by 0.5 MMT to 16.5 MMT, surpassing the
official export limit of 16.2 MMT set for the 2024/25 MY. Projection for the U.S.
was raised by 0.7 MMT to 23.1 MMT. Meanwhile, China’s wheat imports were cut again
by 0.5 MMT to 11.0 MMT.
Global consumption for 2024/25 was cut by
0.9 MMT to 802.5 MMT.
Global ending stocks were increased by 0.3
MMT to 257.9 MMT, still the lowest since 2015/16 MY, slightly above the average
trade guess of 257.6 MMT. The U.S. stocks were cut by 0.5 MMT to 21.6 MMT, below
expectations.
Overall, the report is bullish, with CBOT wheat prices growing following its release. Support is also provided by corn segment, where prices have hiked after the report publishing.
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