Current demand for corn from China remains sluggish, but traders anticipate a potential rebound after the Chinese New Year. With domestic stocks expected to decline and informal import restrictions potentially lifted, China could be back in the global market for more corn. And if that happens, Brazil stands to gain the most, especially if trade tensions between the U.S. and China reignite, according to Kate Mudriian, Chief Analyst at ASAP Agri, who spoke at the online meeting of the Trend & Hedge Club on 13 November.

ASAP Agri forecasts Brazil's corn exports to China for the 2024/25 MY will reach 11 MMT, up from 10 MMT a year earlier. Meanwhile, Ukraine's corn exports to China are expected to drop to 3 MMT in the current season, down from 5 MMT in the 2023/24 MY, K. Mudriian noted. The lack of Chinese demand is already forcing Ukrainian traders to diversify their export markets, increasing shipment to other Asian and Middle Eastern countries.

For the US, ASAP Agri projects corn exports to China will fall to 2 MMT for the 2024/25 MY, down from 3 MMT the previous year. K. Mudriian noted that while China is an important market for U.S. corn, it is far from the biggest. Therefore, any deterioration in the U.S.-China trade relations would likely hit the US soybean market harder than corn. If trade with China cools off, U.S. exporters are expected to focus more on Mexico and other major Asian buyers.