The Nov WASDE report raised global wheat production estimate for the 2024/25 MY by 0.65 MMT to 794.7 MMT, with an upward revision of harvest for Kazakhstan offsetting cuts made for russia, the EU, Argentina and Brazil. Particularly, Kazakh wheat crop estimate was increased by 2 MMT to the third-largest 18 MMT on harvest results. In turn, russia's production was lowered by 0.5 MMT to 81.5 MMT, now 1.5 below the official numbers. For the EU, the estimation was decreased by 0.4 MMT to 122.6 MMT. Argentina's production was reduced by 0.5 MMT to 17.5 MMT, below local analysts' expectations.

Global wheat exports for 2024/25 were cut by 1.15 MMT to 214.7 MMT. However, among key exporters, only Kazakhstan’s prospects were lowered, despite an upward revision to crop estimation. Kazakh wheat exports were reduced by 0.5 MMT to 10 MMT. Also, Turkey’s export potential was decreased by 1 MMT to 7.5 MMT. Meanwhile, China’s wheat imports were cut by 0.5 MMT to 11.5 MMT.

Global consumption for 2024/25 was raised by 0.9 MMT to 803.4 MMT “primarily on higher feed and residual use for Kazakhstan with its larger production.”

Global ending stocks were cut slightly by 0.15 MMT to 257.6 MMT, above the average trade guess of 256.8 MMT. The U.S. stocks were raised modestly, a bit above expectations.

Overall, the report is neutral, with CBOT wheat prices declining following its release as no surprises were voiced.