Ukraine recorded its highest wheat exports to Italy in 22 months, shipping a total of 124 KMT in September 2024, marking the largest volume since November 2022. However, these exports resulted from contracts concluded during July and August, with export flows showing a sharp decline in October. Buyers were indeed reducing their contracting activity during September and October, showing relatively low buying interest. 

ASAP Agri decided to examine wheat prices in Italy’s local market by analyzing data from the local exchange. We found that prices have increased by about 20 USD/MT since the end of September. The next step was to reassess how applicable these prices are for calculating CIF East Coast buying levels for wheat. (The price chart is available to ASAP Weekly Premium subscribers)

According to Tetiana Vinnyk, a broker at Atria Brokers, this price dynamic requires careful analysis. “It’s important to note that the price reflected in the Bari exchange chart is a quote offered the week prior for a small quantity. To accurately calculate the cost on a CIF East Coast Italy basis, the exchange price must be adjusted for vessel unloading fees, transportation costs from the port to the miller, and a margin for the importer,” she explained.