The first quarter of 2024/25 MY showed strong exports of wheat from Ukraine that surpassed last year’s volume by 2.7 MMT – to 6.1 MMT. russian export also was quite substantial and remained steady compared to the first quarter of 2023/24 MY – at 14.5 MMT. The exports from the EU fell by 2 MMT y/y to 6.3 MMT over the reporting period.


Taking into account forecasted decrease of wheat exports from all three origins in 2024/25 MY, as well as strong pace of Ukrainian shipments in the first quarter and good performance of russian exports, we may expect the noticeable decrease in the rest of the season. Detailed volumes are available for subscribers of ASAP Agri Premium Reports https://asapagri.com/premium 

Additionally, recent news on russia wheat exports deserve a close watch. On 11 October, there was a closed-door meeting of russian grain exporters. After the meeting, russian AgMin told to exporters not sell wheat at below 250 USD/MT FOB at the tenders. After that, last week, russian union of grain exporters set its “consensus indicator” for wheat export prices on a FOB Novorossiysk basis at 240 USD/MT for Oct, 245 USD/MT for Nov and 250 USD/MT for Dec. They also named 13 countries (Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh, Qatar, Kuwait, South Korea, Pakistan, India and Iraq) where russia would supply grain without foreign intermediaries. Additionally, after the meeting, the export duty on russian wheat was hiked by 41% and the next week it was raised by 14%. So, it will be 2131.2 RUR/MT since 23 October.