Once again Oct WASDE showed little changes to global soybean S&D for 2024/25 MY.

WASDE pegged global production at 428.9 MMT vs 429.2 MMT LM, with downward revision made mostly for Ukraine – to 6.6 MMT vs 6.8 MMT in Sep. For the US analysts only slightly declined crop forecast – to 124.7 MMT (-0.1 MMT), with yield put at 3.57 MT/HA compared to 3.58 MT/HA LM. For South America, namely Brazil and Argentina, WASDE left production forecasts untouched – at 169 and 51 MMT respectively, which is sizably higher y/y.

2024/25 MY global soya export Oct WASDE put at 181.5 MMT (-0.1 MMT m/m). The only revision was made for Ukraine – export put at 4.2 MMT (-0.1 MT/HA). The USA and Brazil are still expected to export 85% of the total global export.

Global stocks of soybeans in 2024/25 MY Oct WASDE forecasts at 134.65 MMT (within the trade guess range), virtually unchanged m/m, but up 22.3 MMT y/y. Upward revision was made for China and Argentina.

Overall, Oct WASDE for soybeans remained rather neutral. Price’s focus will continue to be on the harvesting campaign in the USA and planting in Brazil and the weather development there. At the time of publication, prices moved to the red, as the WASDE failed to be supportive for prices.