India's grain market is experiencing significant shifts across its major crops, with wheat facing particular challenges while corn thrives, said Rahul Chauhan, IGrain India, at Trend&Hedge Club on 25 Sep.


The Indian wheat market is under considerable stress. Production has been on a downward trend due to adverse climate conditions, falling from 109.59 MLN MT in 2021/22 MY to 104.0 MLN MT in 2022/23 MY. Although a slight recovery to 110.0 MLN MT is projected for 2023/24 MY, the sector remains vulnerable. This decline has led to a sharp reduction in government procurement, which plummeted from earlier 40-50% to lesser than 30%.


India starts planting wheat in October and harvesting started from February to May.


The S&D balance for wheat is tightening. But while production has decreased, consumption remains relatively stable at around 108-109 MLN MT annually. Consequently, ending stocks are projected to fall from 27.80 MLN MT in 2020/21 MY to a mere 10.64 MLN MT in 2023/24 MY.


“This situation has forced the government to implement various strategies, including setting stock limits, increasing transparency through stock declarations, and promoting subsidized wheat flour sales under the BHARAT ATTA scheme” - added Rahul Chauhan.