Prices for Ukrainian 11.5% milling wheat have
risen for a month, with selling ideas reaching 222 USD/MT on a FOB basis as of 27
September, up from 214 USD/MT at the end of August.
There is a room for further price increase,
supported by external factors, including adverse weather conditions in key
producing countries such as russia, Argentina, and Australia.
Excessive rainfall in Siberian regions of russia
has impacted yields of spring wheat for the 2024 harvest, with the country
having harvested 88% of its crop thus far. In turn, dry conditions in southern russia
continue to delay the planting of winter wheat, with planting pace at
multi-year lows.
Additionally, there are concerns that a cold
spell may have adversely affected wheat crops in southern and southeastern
Australia.
In Argentina, a lack of rainfall has led to
the abandonment of some fields, with dry conditions expected to persist across
large portions of key producing areas in the coming week.
Finally, on Friday, the European Commission
revised its estimate for the EU soft wheat crop downward by 1.5 MMT to 114.6 MMT,
marking a 9% decrease from last year.
Also, current prices for Ukrainian 11.5%
wheat remain significantly lower than Euronext levels, which may spur demand
from buyers, which is very sluggish so far.
A new graph illustrating the price correlation between Ukrainian 11.5% wheat and Euronext is available for subscribers of our Premium Report.
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