In stark contrast to wheat, the corn sector is experiencing a boom said Rahul Chauhan, IGrain India, at Trend&Hedge Club on 25 Sep.

Corn production has seen substantial growth, increasing from 31.65 MLN MT in 2020/21 MY to a projected 37.50 MLN MT in 2024/25 MY according to USDA.

Rahul Chauhan expects that production may soar to 39 MMT in a current season, because corn now has got the largest margin in India for farmers. “They receive very good prices thus have incentive to grow the production”.

Corn prices are currently trading above the Minimum Support Price (MSP) of 2.225 Rs/MT, at 2.300-2.400 Rs/MT, while 10 years ago price totaled only 900 Rs/MT. This price surge has stimulated farmer interest in corn production. The boom is largely attributed to the increasing demand for ethanol production, with crops "selling like hot cakes" in local markets.

Overall, the domestic consumption in India is expected to reach 38.40 MLN MT in 2024/25 MY (per USDA) or even 40 MMT according to Rahul Chauhan estimations, considerable higher from 27.85 MLN MT in 2020/21 MY.

However, corn market may face new challenges as the government relaxes regulation on ethanol output from sugar during the peak crushing period for sugarcane (November-December), which potentially can increase pressure on corn prices at the period.

Speaking of corn import to India – it is increasing due to high prices and local demand. But India imports only non-GMO corn with condition of 50% import duty. However, as this crop is an important part of feed industry, the government allowed to import 0.5 MMT of corn at 15% TRQ duty.