Sep WASDE cut global rapeseed export in 2024/25 MY by 0.2 MMT at 17.28 MMT. Analysts cut the projection for Canada – by 0.45 MMT to 7 MMT. Almost equally WASDE reduced China’s canola import forecast – by 0.5 MMT to 3.4 MMT, which may be attributed to the latest trade dispute between the countries and introduction of the 1-year anti-dumping investigation by China against Canadian canola.

In 2024/25 MY Australia’s export forecast increased by 0.25 MMT to 4.75 MMT while the EU import projection also increased – by 0.3 MMT to 6.6 MMT.

Sep WASDE pushed global rapeseed production in 2024/25 MY lower by 1.27 MMT to 87.55 MMT, driven by cuts made for the EU – by 1.25 MMT to 17.65 MMT.

Other key rapeseed producers left with steady m/m crop forecasts: Canada is expected to harvest 20 MMT, Australia – 5.5 MMT, Ukraine – 3.7 MMT, russia – 5.1 MMT.

Sep WASDE put global crushing higher – by 0.33 MMT at 84.6 MMT, thanks to upward revisions made for Canada – 12 (+0.2) MMT and China – 19.2 (+0.4) MMT.

WASDE surged the forecast for Canadian canola stocks in 2024/25 MT – by 1.24 MMT to 3.2 MMT, the highest level for the past 6 seasons. At the same time, for China the forecast lowered to 2.43 (-0.2) MMT and for the EU – to 0.9 (-0.5) MMT.

USDA just highlighted in figures the recent Canada-China tension and the well-known drop of EU crop. Both elements were already integrated by the market. No surprise, this September report appears as neutral for the rapeseed futures.