Global soybeans S&D in Sep WASDE showed slight changes, however higher
forecasts for export and consumption provided support for prices.
WASDE put global export in 2024/25 MY at 181.6 MMT (+0.4 MMT m/m), with
the only revision made for Paraguay – up 0.5 MMT to 7.3 MMT. The forecasts for
the USA and Brazil left unchanged – at 50.3 and 105 MMT respectively.
Global domestic consumption forecasted higher by 0.1 MMT at 402.9 MMT,
as well as global import – by 0.46 MMT at 177.7 MMT.
Sep WASDE forecasted global soya production in 2024/25 MY at 129.2 MMT
(+0.5 MMT m/m), thanks to upward revisions made for Canada to 7.2 (+0.3) MMT and
Paraguay to 11.2 (+0.5) MMT. Forecast of the US crop left steady – at 124.8
MMT, as well as its yield, however, some market participants anticipated some
changes due to dry weather. Brazilian and Argentinian 2024/25 crops also left
unchanged – 51 MMT and 169 MMT respectively.
Global stocks of soybeans in a new season Sep WSDE pegged slightly
higher – at 134.5 MMT (+0.3 MMT m/m), at the higher end of the trade guess.
However, analysts decreased its forecast of the US soya stocks in 2024/25 MY –
by 0.3 MMT to 14.9 MMT, which corresponded to average trade guess, and provides
support for prices in a short term.
Overall, Sep WASDE for soybeans is quite neutral, and prices in a near
term will be focusing more on the weather development in South America,
especially in Brazil, where drought has already planted worries over delayed
planting of the new crop. Herewith, at the time of publication of this
commentary, CBOT soy was green, as trade looks still inspired by the last
week's US soy export sales.
Leave a Comment