As recently market is driven by demand, we would like to start from the Chinese import figure. It was upped in Sep WASDE by 0.3 MMT to 10.5 MMT.

Looks like from this improvement is going to win Australia.

Global 2024/25 barley production was cut by 0.7 MMT t 144.3 MMT. Forecast for Canada was decreased by 1.1 MMT to 7.5 MMT, and for the EU – by 450 KMT to 51.5 MMT. In turn, Australian crop was upped by 0.7 MMT to 12.2 MMT, and Ukrainian harvest was increased slightly by 0.1 MMT to 5.4 MMT.

Lower harvests resulted in downward revision of barley 2024/25 export prospect for Canada (-0.3 MMT to 2 MMT), and the EU (-0.1 MMT to 6.5 MMT), which were offset by upward revision of Australian prospects – by 0.7 MMT to 6.3 MMT. Thus, the global export is seen 0.4 MMT higher m/m at 27.6 MMT.

Global barley ending stocks for 2024/25 MY is seen at 17.4 MMT, down slightly by 150 KMT m/m.