Sep WASDE reduced global 2024/25 corn production by 1.3 MMT to 1.218 BMT. The EU crop forecast was cut by 1.5 MMT to 59 MMT “on reductions for Romania and Hungary partially offset by an increase for France”. russian harvest was lowered by 0.6 MMT to 13.5 MMT, and Serbian by 0.3 MMT to 5.5 MMT. In turn, there was surprising increase of the US crop – by 1 MMT to 385.7 MMT, as the yield was upped, while the market was expecting to see a smaller figure m/m.

World 2024/25 corn export was lowered modestly by 0.1 MMT to 191.4 MMT, with cuts to russia (-0.4 MMT to 3.8 MMT) and Serbia (-0.2 MMT to 3.3 MMT) were partially offset by increase for Canada (+0.2 MMT to 1.9 MMT).

World 2024/25 corn consumption was raised by 1.7 MMT to 1.219 MMT, with the biggest increase was seen for Brazil and Mexico.

Global 2024/25 corn ending stocks were reduced by 1.8 MMT to 308.4 MMT, below the average trade guess at 310.2 MMT. China’s forecast was decreased by 1.5 MMT to 211.3 MMT. The US stocks were cut by 0.4 MMT to 52.3 MMT, but they came in above the average expectations amid stronger production.  

In overall, the report is slightly bearish, as surprising increase of US corn yield and stronger US stocks can be offset by lower-than-expected global stocks. Herewith, the disbalance of corn supply, with lack in the Black Sea basin, could continue providing support for Euronext, as well as Black Sea physical market.