Sep WASDE cut global 2024/25 wheat production by 1.4 MMT to 796.9 MMT, still a record. Harvest in Australia was increased by 2 MMT to 32 MMT, “on favorable conditions in Western Australia, New South Wales, and Queensland”. The forecast is now close to 31.8 MMT recently seen by ABARES. Ukrainian production was raised by 0.7 MMT to 22.3 MMT “based on harvest data released by the AgMin”. The EU’s crop was again cut, now by 4 MMT to 124 MMT, “on unfavorable harvest weather for France and Germany”.

World 2024/25 wheat export was raised by 1.7 MMT to 216.5 MMT. Improvement of trade prospects for Ukraine, Australia and Canada offset reduction for the EU. Ukrainian export was upped by 1 MMT to 15 MMT, still lower than 16.2 MMT as an export limit set by the AgMin. Australia’s trade was raised by 2 MMT to 25 MMT, and Canadian export was upped by 1 MMT to 26 MMT. The expectations for the EU were decreased by 2.5 MMT to 31.5 MMT on harvest reduction.

World 2024/25 consumption was increased by 0.9 MMT to 804.9 MMT “primarily on higher feed and residual use for several countries more than offsetting a reduction for the EU.”

World 2024/25 ending stocks were raised by 0.6 MMT to 257.2 MMT, “as increases for Canada, Brazil, and Kazakhstan more than offset reductions for Australia, Turkey, and several other countries”. The figure is still the lowest since 2015/16 MY, but is higher than an average trade guess at 255.3 MMT. Particularly, the US stocks were left unchanged, while the market on average was waiting for a slight reduction m/m.

In overall, the report is neutral, with no reduction to US stocks and world stocks higher than the average expectations. All changes in production figures were not a surprise. All expectations rely on Australia where the job isn’t done yet.