Romania's 2024 corn crop is under significant stress, with thermal and moisture stress indicators showing concerning trends. A comparison of thermal stress and moisture levels from June, July, and August in 2024 against 2021 reveals that 2021 was far more successful, said Gabriel Razi, HARVISTA, Romania, during the Trend&Hedge Club on 21 Aug.

The primary issue this year is thermal stress, which took out the moisture from the ground in a higher rate than usual since mid-June. While the wheat crop was somewhat affected, it was too late in the season to cause major damage. Unfortunately, corn crops were not as fortunate. In July, temperatures rose to 40 degrees during the critical pollination period for corn, and this extreme heat continued into August in a more aggressive way.

Initially, spring brought good moisture to the fields, allowing farmers to plant corn under favorable conditions. However, by the end of June, moisture levels began to decline, compounded by the ongoing thermal stress. July saw a sharp drop in moisture levels, leaving crops in poor condition and jeopardizing future yields.

“In June, crops appeared promising, and farmers were optimistic about a good harvest. However, the severe heat and drought in July and August caused corn crops to deteriorate rapidly, basically the corn melted in the fields. Yields are reported to be between 2-4 MT/HA for irrigated crops, and below 1 MT/HA for unirrigated fields—far below Romania's normal yield of up to 15 MT/HA. The best crops are expected from the western and central regions of Romania, which may still contribute to the market”, - the speaker added.

“In terms of supply and demand, Romania's 2024 corn crop is estimated at 7.7 MMT, a 30% decrease y/y. In a typical year, Romania harvests around 12 MMT of corn. The reduced harvest area, with some fields left unharvested due to extremely low yields, is a significant concern. The average yield is expected to be less than 4 MT/HA, which could severely impact Romania's competitiveness in both the European and Black Sea markets”, - G. Razi added.

Imports are expected to increase to around 730 KMT in 2024, up from 380 KMT LY. An unusual premium has emerged, with domestic users paying 40-50 EUR/MT more than buyers from the port of Constanta. However, this premium may not last throughout the season, as Romania may supplement its lower corn crop with imports from countries like Serbia.

Romania's corn exports are expected to decline significantly, reaching only 2.2 MMT compared to last year's 4.4 MMT. Meanwhile, Western Europe is expected to have an ample corn supply due to rainfall this summer, with countries like Spain likely buying corn from France, Brazil, Argentina, or the USA.

Looking ahead, Romanian farmers are considering shifting from spring crops like corn to winter crops like wheat, barley, or rapeseed next season to avoid another potential failure. The autumn seeding campaign, especially for rapeseed, is expected to be challenging. Additionally, the geography of corn cultivation in Romania may shift northward over time.

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