ASAP Agri upped its forecast of soybean crop 2024 in Ukraine in spite of drought. This was done due to higher acreage, reported by State Statistics Service of Ukraine at a record 2.63 MLN HA. Moreover, sounds like USDA knows some secrets, as it pegs the acreage at 2.9 MLN HA. Taking into account official acreage, ASAP Agri expects soybean crop 2024 to reach an all-time high of 5.7 MMT, pushing export to a record.

Next question will be in the split of soybean between exporters and crushers. Export will be definitely more than 3.1 MMT, which will be record. As well, crush has a big chance to overcome 1.9 MMT and also become record.

Taking into account abundant expectations of soybean production in Ukraine, as well as a bearish world soy balance, as of 16 August 2024, sellers of new crop Ukrainian soybean lowered their selling ideas to 420 USD/MT CIF Marmara and 430 USD/MT CIF Egypt for October shipment. For comparison soy new crop offers in the beginning of July started at 470 USD CIF Egypt.